US Data Response Employment Report (Mar. 13) The modest 88,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March is further evidence that the US economy is undergoing another spring slowdown, albeit from a pretty rapid pace of growth in the first quarter. 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 13) It is tempting to blame the decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-month low of 51.3 in March, from 54.2, on the faltering global economic recovery. However, that theory is hard to square... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March's sharp decline in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 59.7, from 68.0 in February, is probably a delayed reaction to higher gasoline prices, which were prevalent during... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 5.7% m/m rebound in February's durable goods orders, which was above the 3.9% consensus forecast and a bit below our 6.5% call, is not quite as good as it looks. Nevertheless, business investment... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Feb.) & Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The combination of the payroll tax hike and rising gasoline prices was probably behind the unexpected drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to a 15-month low of 71.8 in... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb. 13) Aside from the rise in gasoline prices, which is now being reversed, it is hard to find any evidence of major consumer price pressures in the economy. This will allow the Fed to maintain its attack on... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb. 13) February’s retail sales figures suggest that, so far at least, households are coping well with the burden of more taxation and higher gasoline prices. It now looks as though consumption growth in the... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) February's Employment Report isn't a game changer, but it adds to the evidence from the upbeat ISM surveys released earlier this week that, despite the expiry of the payroll tax cut, higher gasoline... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan. 13) The rebound in the trade deficit to $44.4bn in January, from $38.1bn in December of last year, was a bit bigger than expected (consensus forecast was $42.6bn) and suggests that net external trade will... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 20-month high of 54.2 in February, from 53.1, suggests that US producers are undeterred by the fragile recovery in overseas manufacturing activity, for now... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending (Jan.) Households absorbed the large drop in income in January by reducing their saving rather than their spending. But the effects of the payroll tax hike and the latest surge in gasoline prices will... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) January's durable goods report is a lot better than the 5.2% m/m drop in headline orders suggests, even after factoring in the downward revision to December's gain, which was trimmed to 3.7% m/m from... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite lower household income and surging gasoline prices, consumers were relatively upbeat in February. The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices data provide a timely reminder that, even though it is now four years since the Fed first started expanding its balance sheet, there are few signs that inflation is becoming... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 76.3 in February, from 73.8, probably reflects a mixture of better news on the labour market and the continued rally in stock... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Jan.) & Empire State Index (Feb.) There’s no need to be concerned by the fall in manufacturing output in January. The improvement in the survey evidence and the slightly better global backdrop actually mean that industrial conditions... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
