US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high in December shouldn’t lead to a revision of fourth-quarter GDP growth, but it does highlight the deteriorating outlook for exports. 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) January's Employment Report was unequivocally strong and points to a rapidly improving labour market. Non-farm payrolls increased by 243,000, a nine-month high, up from 203,000 in December. That was... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The continued steady turnaround in the industrial sector, as suggested by the rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.1 in January, from 53.1, appears to be due to both the resilience of the... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in January to 61.1, from 64.8 in December, doesn't sit well with the overall improvement in the economic data. Consumers remain a... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The acceleration in GDP growth to 2.8% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 1.8% in the third, suggests that the recovery is gathering momentum. However, the much bigger than expected positive... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Dec.) December's durable goods orders figures are encouraging, suggesting that after stagnating in the fourth quarter of last year, business investment started to pick up again right at the end of that... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices were unchanged in December and the annual CPI inflation rate declined to 3.0%, from 3.4%. Favourable base effects will generate an even sharper drop in that annual inflation rate over... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Dec) The strong rebound in manufacturing output at the end of last year is encouraging, as is the further decline in producer price inflation. 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The widening in the trade deficit in November to a 10-month high is perhaps the first real sign that the crisis in Europe and the more general global slowdown is starting to take its toll on the US. 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s disappointing retail sales figures suggest it was not a happy holiday season for retailers. For the fourth quarter as a whole, our calculations now suggest that real consumption increased... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The bigger than expected 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December (consensus forecast was 155,000) alongside the decline in the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.5%, from 8.7%... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) UK gilt yields have continued to fall over the last month, despite growing fiscal fears and the limited boost to gilt prices provided so far by the Monetary Policy Committee’s further round of asset... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Income/ Spending (Nov.) November's personal spending and durable goods data releases were a little disappointing and together suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will now come in at slightly below 2.5% annualised, whereas... 23rd December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices were unchanged in November, held down by a drop back in gasoline and motor vehicle prices. The annual rate of CPI inflation fell only marginally to a still elevated 3.4%, from 3.5%... 16th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response IP/PPI (Nov), Emp St/Phil Fed (Dec), Cur Ac (Q3) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in November is a bit worse than the 0.1% m/m fall we were expecting, but it looks like the floods in Thailand had more of an impact than we had... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The disappointing increase in retail sales in November suggests that the start of the holiday shopping season was not half as strong as retailers’ spectacular Black Friday sales reports suggested... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
