US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, which was well above the 225,000 consensus forecast but bang in line with our own call, adds to the evidence that the US economy is regaining momentum... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The drop back in the trade deficit to $40.9bn in April, from $50.6bn, confirms that the spike in March was a temporary surge caused by the ending of the West Coast port dispute in February and... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The modest improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to 52.8 in May, from 51.5, puts it at a level that historically has been consistent with GDP growth of around 2%. Accordingly, even though the... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) April's durable goods figures confirm that, following the earlier disruption caused by the unseasonably cold weather in the Northeast and the West Coast port dispute, the factory sector was getting... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in April, which pushed the three-month annualised rate of core inflation up to a four-year high of 2.6%, leaves the Fed with less scope to delay raising... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod'n (Apr.) & Consumer Conf. (May) The weakness in industrial production underlines the negative impact that lower oil prices and the stronger dollar are having on the mining and manufacturing sectors. At the same time, the drop back... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The continuing weakness of retail sales in April brings into question our working assumption that the soft patch through the winter months was largely due to the unseasonably cold temperatures in the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) Although non-farm payrolls increased by a relatively healthy 223,000 and the unemployment rate edged down to a seven-year low of 5.4%, April's employment report was otherwise something of a mixed bag... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The surge in the trade deficit to a massive $51.4bn in March, from $35.9bn, means that the economy contracted slightly in the first quarter. Nevertheless, the enormous 7.7% m/m jump in imports is... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) Although it was unchanged at 51.5 in April, the ISM manufacturing index is still at a level consistent with GDP growth of nearly 2% annualised. Given the extent of the dollar's appreciation over the... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The economy all but stagnated in the first quarter, as lower energy prices triggered a big drop in mining investment, but did little to boost consumer spending because of the impact of the... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 4.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in March was entirely due to a sharp rise in transportation orders. The fall in core orders suggests that the outlook for business investment in equipment... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rebound in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April which, aside from this January's reading, left it at its highest level since 2007 and well above the long-term average... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Although headline consumer prices increased by a slightly smaller than expected 0.2% m/m in March (the consensus forecast was 0.3% m/m), there are now clear signs of a firming in underlying inflation... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) Although the 0.6% m/m decline in March industrial production was mainly due to the unwinding of the weather distortion, which triggered a spike in utilities output in February, the weakness in the... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Mar.) The 0.9% m/m rebound in retail sales in March would seem to confirm that the coldest winter on record in the Northeast explains much of the weakness in the preceding two months. 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
