US Data Response Unexpected weakness a temporary blip The well below consensus 126,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, particularly when combined with the 69,000 downward revision to earlier gains, will raise fears that the labour market is... 4th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both imports and exports in February suggest that the West Coast port dispute had a bigger impact than we had anticipated. Exports fell by 1.6% m/m in February, while imports... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 22-month low of 51.5 in March, from 52.9, illustrates that the stronger dollar and soft overseas demand are still an obstacle for export... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 101.3 in March, from 98.8, should reassure those worried that households haven't yet spent their savings stemming from the slump... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) Equipment investment probably contracted in the first quarter, but the improving survey evidence points to a rebound in the second quarter. The consensus forecast that durable goods orders increased... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The 0.2% m/m increase in February's consumer prices was enough to pull the US out of deflation after only one month, with the annual inflation rate rebounding from -0.1% to 0.0%. But there is a good... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production figures continue the recent run of weak news on the US economy and may make some Fed officials more inclined to keep interest rates on hold for longer. Nonetheless, we... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) For the second year in a row, the unseasonably severe winter weather appears to have hit retail sales, which contracted by 0.6% m/m in February. As a result, we now anticipate that first-quarter GDP... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 295,000 increase in payroll employment in February (consensus forecast 235,000) and the further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% illustrate that, even if wage growth is still subdued, the Fed... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manuf. Index (Feb.), Income & Spending (Jan.) The economic data released today suggest that first-quarter GDP growth should be between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised , which is a little lower than we previously envisaged. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The 0.7% m/m decline in consumer prices in January was entirely due to a massive 18.7% m/m fall in gasoline prices. As a result, the annual rate of inflation fell to -0.1%, which is technically a... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite falling in February, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence continues to show that consumers have started 2015 in an optimistic mood. Confidence is still at a level consistent... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jan.) The modest 0.2% m/m increase in industrial production in January reflects the early impact of the collapse in energy prices on the mining sector. Otherwise, manufacturing output increased by a... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The fall in February's University of Michigan consumer confidence index is nothing to be alarmed about. The decline merely reversed the gain in January and, other than that reading last month... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Even if we ignore the 0.8% m/m drop in January's retail sales, since it was entirely due to a massive 9.3% m/m price-related slump in the value of gasoline station sales, non-gas sales were still only... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) We keep trying to tell everyone that the US economy is enjoying a period of unusual strength, maybe now people will believe us. Non-farm payroll employment increased by 257,000 in January and the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
