US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The massive 321,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, together with the 44,000 upward revision to the two preceding months, bolsters our view that the Fed will begin to hike interest rates as... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The continued strength of the ISM manufacturing index is starting to look a bit odd when set against the economic backdrop and the other survey evidence. We remain optimistic about the outlook for... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods/Personal Inc. & Spending (Oct.) October's durable goods and personal income and spending reports together suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be around 2.5% annualised, whereas we had previously expected it to be closer to 3... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low just ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season shouldn’t worry retailers. Much more important is the improvement... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s consumer prices data go some way to underlining that price deflation in the US economy is confined to the energy sector. That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if some of the recent fall in... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Oct.) & Empire State (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m fall in industrial production in October will boost concerns that the global slowdown and stronger dollar are taking their toll on activity. While industry should be hit harder than other... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence to an eight-year high in November means there is a very good chance that retailers’ holiday wishes will be granted. 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 0.3% m/m rise in the dollar value of retail sales in October was even stronger than it looks because the headline figure was depressed by a price-related drop in gasoline station sales. Real... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) Although the 214,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October was slightly below the consensus forecast of 235,000, this was still, on the whole, a strong employment report. In particular, a 638,000 surge... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The increase in the trade deficit to $43.0bn in September, from $40.0bn, means that third-quarter GDP growth is now set to be revised down from the initial 3.5% annualised estimate to about 3.0%... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index back to a three-year high in October supports our view that the US economy will largely shrug off the recent easing in global demand and the effects of the... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The better than expected 3.5% annualised rise in third-quarter GDP, which was above the 3.0% consensus forecast and even our own 3.3% call, illustrates that the Fed was right to adopt a slightly more... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The leap in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in October to a seven-year high suggests that households are becoming more upbeat just as the crucial holiday shopping season draws... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The rebound in orders for new durable goods in May will help ease any fears that the economy is headed for a double-dip recession. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the broader picture that economic... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drag from lower gasoline prices is only just beginning and will eventually result in CPI inflation falling from 1.7% in September to just 1.2% in December. Core inflation will remain higher, but... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The rise in consumer confidence to a seven-year high in October is another indication that the US economic outlook remains strong. That said, the preliminary survey results pre-date the recent equity... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
