US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to $46.6bn in December, from $39.8bn, may have wrong-footed the markets (the consensus forecast was $38.0bn). But it was broadly in line with the assumptions that the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a one-year low of 53.5 in January, from 55.1, reflects the recent surge in the dollar and the weakness of global demand. 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was slightly below the 3.0% consensus forecast but, following the breakneck 5.0% gain in the third quarter of last year, this slowdown is nothing to... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The surge in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a seven-year high in January suggests that consumers started the year in a buoyant mood and that the decline in retail sales in... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weakness in non-defence capital goods shipments in December means that the balance of risks to our estimate that fourth-quarter GDP increased by 3.0% annualised now lie a little to the downside... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to an 11-year high in January supports our view that the fall in retail sales in December was nothing to worry about. Fed... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec.) Even though headline inflation will spend most of this year in negative territory, if we’re right in thinking that core inflation is unlikely to fall much further, the Fed will still raise interest... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Despite the 0.9% m/m fall in the value of retail sales in December, it still looks as though real consumption growth in the fourth quarter was a decent 3.5% annualized and GDP growth was close to 3.0%... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The combination of a decent 252,000 rise in payroll employment in December and a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.6%, from 5.8%, still leaves the door open to the Fed raising interest rates... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The full effects of the plunge in oil prices on the US international trade deficit have yet to be felt, which means that the deficit may soon shrink to a five-year low of around $34bn. 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3), Durable Goods/Consumption (Nov.) The clear strengthening in activity towards the end of 2014 may prompt some Fed officials to consider whether they need to raise rates before the middle of 2015. 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) November’s consumer prices figures leave inflation on course to fall someway below 1.0% next summer. But this won’t prevent the Fed from dropping its “considerable time” pledge from its policy... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Nov.) & Empire State (Dec.) November’s industrial production figures build on the message from the recent retail sales data, with both showing that economic activity is unambiguously strong. This may well set the tone for the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in December to a new 7-year high suggests that the recent strong performance of retail sales will continue in December. 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The strong rise in retail sales in November shows that we were right to dismiss all the reports that holiday sales have been weak. The truth is that the rapid rises in employment mean that this... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) October’s trade data will quite rightly do little to temper the optimism generated by the Employment Report, even though they suggest that net trade will make a slightly weaker contribution to GDP... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
