US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The 5.1% m/m decline in durable goods was due primarily to a sharp decline in the notoriously volatile aircraft component. Nevertheless, the details suggest that equipment investment shrank in the... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The increase in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence to a three-month high of 98.1 in January, from 96.3, illustrates that households are not buying into the pessimism in financial... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices fell by 0.1% m/m in December, principally thanks to a 4.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices and, with crude oil prices now below $30 a barrel, we can expect even bigger falls in the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s retail sales report was disappointing across the board and suggests that fourth-quarter GDP growth was as low as 1.0% annualised. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 292,000 surge in non-farm payroll employment, together with the 50,000 upward revision to the gains earlier months should put paid to any fears that, even if fourth-quarter GDP growth ends up... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Nov.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Dec.) Although the trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low of $42.4bn in November, from $44.6bn, the decline was only because imports fell at a faster pace than exports, which is hardly a positive sign... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.2 in December, from 48.6, leaves it at its lowest level since June 2009 and will add to concerns about a deterioration in global demand triggered by... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Spending (Nov.) The monthly data on consumption and investment released this morning do little to change our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be around 2.0% annualised. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The bigger than expected 0.6% m/m decline in industrial production in November was largely due to a weather-related 4.3% m/m drop in utilities output. Manufacturing output was unchanged last month... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The continued decline in energy prices is still just about keeping a lid on headline CPI inflation, but base effects will drive it up sharply over the next few months and, more importantly, there are... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov.) The modest 0.2% m/m gain in headline sales in November was partly due to a price-related drop in gasoline station sales and a slight dip in the value of motor vehicle sales, which remain close to a... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) & Int. Trade (Oct.) The 211,000 gain in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the 35,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, would appear to seal an interest rate hike at the Fed's upcoming FOMC... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) While the decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.6 in November, from 50.1, left it at the lowest level since the recession ended in mid-2009, it doesn't mean that the economy is headed for... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Spending (Oct.) October’s personal spending and durable goods data reveal a fairly muted start to activity in the fourth quarter. Real consumption increased by a modest 0.1% m/m last month, while non-defence capital... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The sharp decline in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a 14-month low of 90.4 in November, from a revised 99.1, is hard to square with the usual drivers of confidence - gasoline... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in October was mainly due to a weather-related drop in utilities output. Nevertheless, while the 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output was encouraging... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
