US Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The rise in housing starts in September continued the recent volatile pattern whereby a decline in one month has been followed by an increase in the next. But while there has been little underlying... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) & Philly Fed (Oct.) The 1.0% m/m surge in industrial production in September and the very modest decline in October's Philly Fed regional manufacturing index are helpful reminders that the slowdowns evident in China and... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.), Empire State (Oct.) & PPI (Sep.) The weak tone of the latest retail sales, manufacturing and PPI data is the first real sign that the stronger dollar and the global slowdown are taking their toll on the domestic economy. But it’s... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s strong Employment Report and August’s decent international trade release have increased the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates next March, as we have been forecasting for some... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index in September won’t cause any sleepless nights at the Fed when the index has fallen from a high level and when it is still consistent with GDP growing at an... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in September doesn’t change the bigger picture that households’ financial positions are stronger now than they have been for most of... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) Stripping out the aircraft-related volatility, the underlying strength in capital goods orders and shipments in August indicates that business investment in equipment continues to expand at a healthy... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further softening in core price pressures in August eases the pressure on the Fedto weaken its “considerable time” rate pledge at today’s policy meeting. 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The fall in industrial production in August was just due to problems seasonally adjusting autos production and is therefore not a sign that the recovery is running out of steam. The more upbeat survey... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The solid rise in retail sales in August, together with the upward revision in July, suggests that annualised real consumption growth in the third quarter as a whole will come in between 1.5% and 2.0%... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The modest 142,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, which was well belowthe consensus forecast at 230,000 and the smallest gain this year, will inevitably sparkspeculation that the US recovery... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) & ADP (Aug.) The further decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $40.5bn in July, from $40.8bn the month before, suggests that net external trade will make a larger positive contribution to third... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rise in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August to itshighest level since before the recession looks a bit odd when other measures ofconfidence have weakened. Nonetheless... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) July’s spectacular durable goods orders provide a misleadingly strong signal on thestrength of the economy, although the outlook for business investment is improving. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The recent slowdown in the pace at which core consumer prices are rising eases some of the pressure on the Fed to start considering rate hikes, although only temporarily. 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The decline in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to an eight-month low of 79.2 in August, from 81.8, principally reflects the drop back in stock markets over the past few weeks... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
