US Data Response GDP (Q2, 1st Estimate) The second-quarter GDP data support the Fed’s more upbeat tone on economic conditions and suggests that the economy could cope with higher interest rates. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The sharp fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in July, to 90.9 from 99.8 in June (revised down from 101.4), points to an easing in consumption growth in the second half of the... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) June's durable goods data suggest that the rebound in investment in business and equipment in the second quarter was probably smaller than we expected. Nevertheless, this isn’t enough to prompt us to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The 0.3 m/m increase in June's consumer price index, which was partly due to a 3.4%m/m increase in gasoline prices, brought the brief period of "deflation" to an end. The annual inflation rate edged... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jun.) The 0.3% increase industrial production in June reflects in large part a rebound in the mining sector, which has struggled so far this year. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales in June is disappointing but, given the strength of sales in earlier months, it still looks like real consumption increased by a relatively healthy 2.7% annualised... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The modest rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $41.9bn in May, from $40.7bn, means that net exports are on track to be a very small drag on overall second-quarter GDP growth, which we still think... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 223,000 increase in payroll employment in June was a bit weaker than we had been expecting, but is offset to some degree by the fall in the unemployment rate, to 5.3% from 5.5%. As such, we still... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The further modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 53.5 in June, from 52.8 in May, was exactly in line with our above consensus forecast and confirms that the outlook for industry is improving... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to within touching distance of the eight-year high seen earlier this year suggests that the surge in real consumption in May... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 1.8% m/m fall in headline durable goods orders in May was largely due to a 35.3% m/m decline in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft orders component. 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The 0.4% m/m increase in May's consumer price index was almost entirely due to a 10.4% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Core prices increased by a more modest 0.1% m/m last month, but the three-month... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) While retail sales volumes only edged up in May, the underlying picture looks robust. And with pay growth picking up, inflation set to remain below 1% for another six months and job creation still... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in May reflects the ongoing contraction in the mining sector and the impact of the stronger dollar on manufacturers. 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) & PPI (May) The rebound in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to 94.6 in June, from 90.7, was impressive given the surge in gasoline prices over the past few weeks. It appears that the US... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 1.2% m/m gain in May's retail sales may have been a bit below our own 1.5% forecast, but the underlying details of the report are actually a lot stronger than we were expecting. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
