US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in October was mainly due to a weather-related drop in utilities output. Nevertheless, while the 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output was encouraging... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) There is now clear evidence of an acceleration in core services price inflation, which hit a six-year high in October. That acceleration has been partly offset by the deflationary impact of the... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.) & Business Sales (Sep.) The rebound in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence measure to a four-month high of 93.1 in November, from 90.0, presumably reflects the rebound in stock markets and the resilience of... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) The October retail sales report was a little bit weaker than expected, but doesn't change our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a respectable 2.5%. 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The much bigger than expected 271,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in October confirms that the weakness in August and September was just a temporary blip and, given the circumstances, a December... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat'l Trade (Sep.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Oct.) The big narrowing in the trade deficit in September is encouraging, but that improvement won't last. The dollar’s surge over the next 12 months means that the deficit is likely to widen again and net... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The very modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index, to 50.1 in October from 50.2 in September, illustrates that the strong dollar and weak global demand are still weighing very heavily on the... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The slowdown in GDP growth to 1.5% annualised in the third quarter, from a very strong 3.9% in the second, was mainly due to a big drag from inventories, which subtracted 1.4% points after making a... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) & Consumer Conf. (Oct.) The 1.2% m/m decline in durable goods orders in September was actually better than we expected, but only because the drag from the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category wasn't as bad as we... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod’n (Sep.) & Consumer Conf. (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in September was a much smaller fall than we were expecting, but it nonetheless illustrates the impact that the stronger dollar is having on manufacturing... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The September CPI report suggests that although domestic inflationary pressures are slowly building, the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices will give the Fed an excuse to delay hiking interest... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep 15) The softness of September’s retail sales figures supports our view that the Fed probably isn’t going to hike interest rates until early next year. Our calculations now suggest that third-quarter GDP... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The huge widening in the trade deficit in August to $48.3bn, from $41.8 bn in July, demonstrates the extent to which deteriorating global growth and the sharp appreciation in the dollar have impacted... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) While it’s always important not to over-react to one single data release, we’ll make an exception in this case. The chances of a rate hike by the Fed this year just went way down. Payroll employment... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.2 in September from 51.1 in August is yet another illustration of the devastating impact that the strong dollar and weak foreign demand is having on... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The increase in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 103.0 in September, from 101.3 suggests that lower gasoline prices trumped the fading impact from the financial market turmoil a... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
