US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 2.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders in August was a lot better than we were expecting, but principally because the drop back in the volatile transportation category was smaller than... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The 0.1% m/m decline in headline CPI inflation in August was partly due to the renewed decline in gasoline prices, but even core prices increased by only 0.1% m/m, suggesting that underlying inflation... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The August retail sales and industrial production reports highlight the continued divergence between a strong domestic economy led by healthy consumer spending and weakness in the export-orientated... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Conf. (Sep.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) Although the slump in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to a 12-month low of 85.7 in September, from 91.9, left it well below the consensus forecast at 91.1 it was almost exactly in... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August’s employment report is fairly mixed and can be used to make a case for or against a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. As far as we’re concerned, the September meeting is a 50-50 toss up... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Jul.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Aug.) The struggles of the export-orientated manufacturing sector, which has been hit by the dollar’s surge and the weakness of global demand, have been getting most of the attention this week, but today's... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year low of 51.1 in August, from 52.7 in July, reflects the ongoing impact of the dollar’s rapid appreciation and softening global demand... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) After nearly nine months of weakness, presumably triggered by the dollar's surge and the slump in the mining sector, equipment investment appears to be finally recovering. Headline durable goods... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August more than offset last month’s sharp fall and is consistent with consumption growth remaining healthy in the third quarter... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The very muted 0.1% m/m gains in both headline and core CPI in July will certainly give the Fed pause for thought in whether to raise interest rates or not at the next FOMC meeting in mid September... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence was virtually unchanged in August, and remains consistent with annualised consumption growth remaining close to 3%, or even better, in the... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in industrial production in July was much higher than the consensus forecast of a 0.3% m/m gain, but it was primarily due to a massive surge in motor vehicle output. The latter... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in July's retail sales, which matched the consensus forecast, was solid rather than spectacular. But upward revisions to sales in May and June mean that real consumption growth... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (June) The widening in the trade deficit to $43.8bn in June, from an upwardly revised $40.9bn in May, is more or less as the BEA assumed in its GDP estimate and therefore doesn’t point to a revision to the 2... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The modest fall in the ISM manufacturing index suggests that the factory sector is continuing to suffer the effects of the dollar’s appreciation. Nonetheless, the survey is still consistent with... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
