US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The increase in headline inflation to a six-year high of 2.8% in May is partly due to the rally in energy prices, but it is also reflects another solid monthly gain in core CPI, which will keep the... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The April trade data suggest that net exports are on track to provide a sizeable boost to second quarter GDP growth, which we now expect to be as high as 4% annualised. 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in May provides further evidence to suggest that GDP growth is set for a decent rebound in the second quarter. On past form, the ISM index is at a level... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) May’s employment report had everything needed to support a June rate hike by the Fed; including a solid 223,000 gain in payrolls, a decline in the unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8% and a... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) Despite the rise in underlying durable goods orders in April, the slowdown in business equipment investment in the first quarter appears to have carried over into the second quarter, with little... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.7% m/m rise in industrial production in April was driven by a strong gain in manufacturing output and provides more evidence that activity is expanding at a faster pace in the second quarter. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Although headline retail sales rose at a weaker pace in April, growth in underlying sales remained strong and past months’ gains were revised higher, which supports our view that the weakness in first... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (May) The continued strength of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May doesn’t offer much encouragement as confidence has been a poor guide to spending in recent times. Nonetheless... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 3.0% m/m rise in gasoline prices pushed headline inflation to a 14-month high of 2.5% in April, but the more muted 0.1% m/m gain in core CPI suggests that the surge in underlying inflation in the... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) With the unemployment rate hitting an 18-year low of only 3.9% in April, the Fed is still going to push ahead and raise rates again in June, even though average hourly earnings growth remained muted. 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Trade (Mar.), ISM Non-Mfg. (Apr.) & Productivity (Q1) The sharp decline in the nominal trade deficit to a six-month low of $49.0bn in March, from $57.7bn in February, was driven by an encouraging rise in exports. The data imply that net trade was broadly... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.3 in April, from 59.3 in March, was worse than the consensus forecast and echoes the weaker tone of some of the early regional surveys. Nonetheless, on... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The slowdown in GDP growth to 2.3% annualised in the first quarter, from 2.9% in the final quarter of last year, was a slight disappointment since the tax cuts should have provided an immediate boost... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The gain in durable goods orders in March was entirely due to a surge in aircraft orders whereas underlying orders and shipments declined. That points to a sharp slowdown in business equipment... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% increase in industrial production in March, following the upwardly revised gain of 1.0% in February, suggests that the factory sector is still in good health, although manufacturing output... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Despite the stronger 0.4% m/m gain in underlying retail sales in March, real consumption growth looks to have slowed to around 1% annualised in the first quarter. Nonetheless, with incomes boosted by... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
