US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) Despite the decline in headline orders, the July durable goods data suggest that business equipment investment growth is set to rebound in the third quarter. That provides further reason to think that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The more modest 0.3% increase in manufacturing output in July adds to the evidence that growth in the manufacturing sector has peaked. Even if a major escalation of tariff barriers is avoided, the... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & Productivity (Q2) Despite the continued strength of retail sales in July, real consumption growth still looks set for a gradual slowdown in the third quarter, as the boost from the recent tax cuts starts to fade. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The acceleration in core inflation to 2.4% in July, a decade high, will be enough to convince the Fed to raise interest rates again in September. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) Non-farm payrolls increased by a more modest 157,000 in July but, with the gain in the preceding two months revised up by a cumulative 59,000, the labour market still appears to be in good health and... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) With the dollar strengthening, activity surveys weakening in other countries and concerns rising over the impact of tariffs, we suspect that, following July’s fall, the ISM manufacturing index will... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 4.1% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP should ensure that the Fed continues to hike its policy rate once every quarter, particularly as core PCE consumer prices increased by 2.0% annualised... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The 1.0% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in June was partly driven by the volatile transport category. But underlying orders also picked up, suggesting that the apparent slowdown in second... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The rebound in manufacturing output in June means the sector posted another near-2% gain in the second quarter overall but, with the dollar strengthening markedly in recent months and retaliatory... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Although underlying retail sales disappointed in June, upward revisions to earlier months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have accelerated to a healthy 3% annualised in the second... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The continued upward trend in core CPI inflation, which rose from 2.2% to 2.3% in June, keeps the Fed on track to raise interest rates twice more this year. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 213,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which followed an even stronger 244,000 rise in May, provides further evidence that uncertainty over trade policy isn’t yet having a major impact on the... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index in June is a clear sign that, for now at least, the strength of the domestic economy is more than offsetting any increased uncertainty on trade policy... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The decline in both headline and core durable goods orders in May indicates that growth in business equipment investment remained close to 5% annualised in the second quarter, much weaker than the... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The strong survey evidence suggests that the drop in manufacturing output in May was a blip, but the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, if reciprocated, could weigh on the factory sector later this... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) Households are back to their free spending ways, with the strength of May’s retail sales figures implying that second-quarter real consumption growth (and GDP growth for that matter) will now be more... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
