US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.2 in July, from 52.6, suggests that output continued to rebound last month. Given that the recovery in production has lagged behind the recovery... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) The 32.9% annualised decline in GDP in the second quarter, more than three times larger than the previous record quarterly contraction, underscores the unprecedented hit to the economy from the... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) Another solid rise in durable goods orders in June left core orders just 3.7% below February levels, underlining how the hit to business investment during the pandemic has been relatively mild... 27th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (June) The better-than-expected 7.5% m/m increase in retail sales in June suggests that the resurgence in coronavirus infections in the South and the West hadn’t yet had an impact on consumers. Admittedly... 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The 5.4% rise in industrial production last month was driven by an even stronger 7.2% gain in manufacturing output as producers, particularly in the auto sector, reopened factories to catch up with... 15th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rebound in consumer prices last month confirms that the disinflationary impact of the lockdowns in March and April is now going into reverse, but inflation is likely to remain muted over the... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 4.8 million increase in non-farm payrolls in June provides further confirmation that the initial economic rebound has been far faster than we and most others anticipated. But that still leaves... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The jump in the ISM manufacturing index to 52.6 in June, from 43.1, adds to the evidence that factory sector activity has recovered fairly quickly as the initial wave of lockdown measures has been... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) & Jobless Claims (Jun.) Consumption and investment rebounded strongly in May, as the lockdowns were eased, but the recovery in production has lagged behind, as manufacturing plants gradually reopened through the month... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (May) The 17.7% m/m rebound in retail sales in May indicates that, as the lockdowns were eased in many states, activity started to recover more quickly than we – and others – had been anticipating. As a... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further fall in core consumer prices in May was mainly driven by continued declines in travel-sensitive categories including airline fares and motor vehicle insurance. There is still little to... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The surprise 2.5 million rise in payroll employment last month indicates that the process of rehiring began sooner than the jobless claims figures suggested. With more states moving to loosen their... 5th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The international trade deficit widened to $49.4bn in April, from $42.3bn, as exports slumped by a massive 20.5% m/m, outpacing a 13.7% m/m decline in imports. 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The modest rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 43.1 in May, from 41.5, echoes the message from the other surveys that factory-sector activity is recovering only gradually as lockdowns have started... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The big drop in durable goods orders last month was once again driven mainly by plunging transport orders with underlying capital goods orders falling more modestly. Together with the drop in... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 11.2% m/m fall in industrial production in April was bigger than at any point in the index’s 100-year history, including the Great Depression, the end of World War 2 and the Global Financial... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
