US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The solid 0.8% increase in manufacturing output last month underlines that production is continuing to catch up with the recovery in consumption. Production will continue to rise, even as consumption... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Both headline and core consumer prices increased by 0.2% m/m in November, as the rebound in the prices of the goods and services that fell the most in the early stages of the pandemic continued. At 1... 10th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slowdown in the pace of non-farm payroll gains to 245,000 in November underlines how the renewed surge in virus cases and restrictions is weighing on services demand, which will only intensify... 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to a still-solid 57.5 in November, from 59.3, suggests that manufacturing production will continue to catch up with the broader economic recovery despite the... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) October's durable goods data suggest that the economy started the fourth quarter on a strong footing, with business equipment investment continuing to rebound, but the second consecutive weekly rise... 25th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The acceleration in manufacturing output in October suggests that, after lagging the broader recovery over the past six months, the factory sector is now making up some lost ground. With inventory... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The weaker than expected 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in October is still broadly consistent with our forecast that consumption growth will slow to 7.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. But the... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The unexpected drop back in core inflation to 1.6% last month, from 1.7%, reflects continued subdued demand in the services sector. With the explosion in virus numbers likely to put further downward... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The 638,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in October is stronger than it looks as it included a 147,000 drop in temporary Census employment and, alongside the big fall in the unemployment rate, it... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) & ADP Employment (Oct.) Although the markets remain firmly focused on the fallout from the election, the 365,000 rise in the ADP measure of private employment in October indicates that the labour market recovery is starting... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year high of 59.3 in October, from 55.4, suggests that the rebound in production, which has so far lagged spending, should begin to catch up over the... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) The 33.1% annualised rebound in GDP in the third quarter was unprecedented in size, but still left the economy 3.5% smaller than it was in the final quarter of last year. 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The 1.9% m/m rise in durable goods orders in September demonstrates that the economic recovery isn’t entirely dependent on consumers, with business equipment investment recording a swift bounce back... 27th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m decline in industrial production in September isn’t necessarily a sign that the broader economic recovery is in jeopardy when we know that retail sales rose strongly last month. But it is... 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The unexpectedly strong 1.9% rise in retail sales last month suggests the economy was carrying more momentum into the fourth quarter than anticipated, defying fears that the expiry of enhanced... 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The more modest rise in core consumer prices in September, which came despite a further surge in used vehicle prices, suggests that the previous upward pressure on prices resulting from supply... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
