US Data Response International Trade (Aug) The trade deficit widened further in August, as imports continued to rebound at a faster pace than exports but, with domestic production continuing to ramp up and overseas demand also recovering, we... 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The weaker than expected 661,000 rise in non-farm payrolls last month was in part due to a drop in government education employment but, with the pace of private payroll gains continuing to slow... 2nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 55.4 in September, from 56.0, suggests that manufacturing output will continue to grow at a relatively faster pace, as producers catch up with the... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in August was weaker than we had been expecting, but the underlying details nevertheless show that business equipment investment staged a V-shaped... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in August was a bit weaker than we had expected, but isn’t a huge concern given that sales are now nearly 2% above their pre-pandemic level. The expiry of the... 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The muted 0.4% m/m increase in industrial production in August wasn’t quite as bad as it looks, with Hurricane Laura causing a temporary 2.5% m/m drop off in mining production and the return to... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The outsized 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in August was principally due to a 5.4% m/m surge in used motor vehicle prices which, unusually for this very early stage of the recovery, reflects problems... 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The slighter softer 1,371,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August was flattered by the hiring of 238,000 temporary workers for the 2020 Census and means that more than half of those who lost their... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul) Both exports and imports rebounded sharply in July, but the bigger gain in the latter means that the trade deficit widened to $63.5bn, from $53.5bn. Net external trade is on track to be a drag on... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index in August indicates that, while manufacturing production has continued to recover, it is still badly lagging the stronger turnaround in spending. The... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The sharp rise in durable goods orders last month was flattered by a surge in transport orders, but core orders are nevertheless almost back to the pre-pandemic level, suggesting that the recovery in... 26th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) Despite the 3.0%m/m rise in industrial production in July, it remained 8.4% below its pre-pandemic February level, illustrating that the industrial recovery is still lagging behind the more impressive... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (July) The details of the July retail sales report were rather better than the modest 1.2% headline gain let on and suggest that, while the recovery has lost pace, the slowdown has not been as sharp as we... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m surge in core consumer prices in July, which pushed the annual core CPI inflation rate back up to 1.6%, from 1.2%, should end any speculation that the pandemic-related slump in demand... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 1,763,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July confirms that, despite the resurgence in new coronavirus cases, the recovery remains firmly intact. With new infections now trending lower again and... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics International Trade (Jun.) The latest trade figures confirm that both exports and imports finally began to rebound in June, and we could see continued rapid gains over the coming months as trade catches up with the strong... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
