US Data Response International Trade (Mar) Although both exports and imports rebounded strongly in March, the former are still 5% below pre-pandemic levels whereas the latter are about 8% higher. As virus restrictions in other advanced... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The drop back in the ISM manufacturing index, to 60.7 in April from 64.7, appears to reflect intense and widespread supply constraints rather than a moderation in demand, a view which is underlined by... 3rd May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) Buoyed by the two rounds of stimulus cheques sent out in the first three months of the year, first-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 6.4% annualised, driven by a massive 10.7% surge in consumption... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The strong rebound in underlying durable goods orders in March, which partly reflects the unwinding of earlier weather-related disruption, indicates that business equipment investment has continued to... 26th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The relatively modest 1.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in March, which was driven by a 2.7% rise in manufacturing output, was weaker than we had expected and illustrates that global supply... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The near-10% surge in retail sales in March reflects a small fraction of the windfall from the $1,400 stimulus cheques, which were largely saved. At the same time, loosening restrictions are playing a... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The outsized 0.6% rise in consumer prices in March, driven in part by a 0.3% rise in core CPI, is the clearest indication so far that the signs of mounting inflation evident in business surveys and... 13th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The widening in the trade deficit to $71.1bn in February, from $67.8bn, came as trade in both directions was hit by the severe winter weather. Import growth is on course to outpace exports again in... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The better than expected 916,000 rebound in non-farm payrolls in March still leaves employment 8.4 million below its pre-pandemic peak from just over a year ago but, with the vaccination program... 2nd April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 64.7 in March, the highest level since 1983, echoes the message from the other surveys that demand is surging. But the details suggest that supply is... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The fall in durable goods orders in February was mainly due to the disruption caused by the severe winter storms, which we already know weighed heavily on manufacturing output last month. The latest... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The 2.2% drop in industrial production in February was largely a result of the severe storms that battered the country in the second half of the month and should be mostly reversed in March. But there... 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 3.0% m/m fall in retail sales in February reflects the fading of the boost from the $900bn fiscal stimulus and disruption caused by the severe winter weather. Regardless, sales remain more than 4%... 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The rise in CPI inflation to 1.7% in February, from 1.4%, was largely due to higher energy prices, with core inflation still subdued. But base effects will push core inflation above 2% by April and... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 379,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February reflects the lifting of coronavirus containment measures (with a helping hand from the $600 stimulus cheques), with the reopening of restaurants... 5th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The further increase in the ISM manufacturing index last month to 60.8, from 58.7, highlights that the recovery in the sector remains red-hot, with the jump in the prices paid component suggesting... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
