US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected rise in durable goods orders in January lifted them decisively above their pre-pandemic level, which is even more impressive given the still-subdued level of aircraft orders... 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected 0.9% m/m rise in industrial production in January, driven by a 1% rise in manufacturing output, means that production is still lagging behind the recovery in goods... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 5.3% m/m surge in retail sales in January how quickly reopenings and the $600 stimulus cheques have fed through to stronger spending. The faster than expected fiscal boost means we now forecast... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in core CPI inflation to 1.4% in January, from 1.6%, illustrates that price pressures remain weak, but base effects will drive both core and headline inflation back above 2% over the coming... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The muted 49,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January illustrates that the recent wave of COVID-19 cases is still weighing on the economy. But with infections now dropping back sharply and the... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.7 in January was a little weaker than we had expected, but it remains close to the three-year high of 60.5 reached in December and at a level consistent... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) The more modest 4.0% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was mainly due to some temporary weakness in consumption, which was dragged down by the resurgence in coronavirus infections. With... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weaker 0.2% gain in headline durable goods orders in December was mainly due to ongoing problems among aircraft manufacturers and a drop off in defence orders. The bigger story is the continued... 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) In contrast to the renewed slump in consumption, the December industrial production figures show manufacturing output continuing to rise strongly and, with inventories still lean, we expect that... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The further slump in retail sales in December confirms that the continued surge in coronavirus infections is now weighing heavily on the economy and illustrates that, despite the building optimism... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation remained low at the end of last year, but strong base effects and rebounding energy prices will push it briefly above 3% in the spring and, even once those effects fade in the summer, we... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 140,000 drop in non-farm payrolls was due to a plunge in leisure and hospitality employment, as bars and restaurants across the country were forced to close in response to the surge in coronavirus... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The widening of the trade deficit in November came as import growth continued to outpace export growth and means net trade will be a significant drag on fourth quarter GDP growth. Those additional... 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The jump in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year high of 60.7 in December, from 57.5, is at odds with the wider evidence that the economic recovery is slowing and suggests the... 5th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods; Income & Spending (Nov.) The solid gains in durable goods orders and shipments last month underline the continued strength of business equipment investment, but the bigger story for the overall economy is that consumption... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The latest surge in coronavirus infections, which has forced a number of states to re-impose lockdowns, resulted in a worse-than-expected decline in retail sales in November. With case numbers still... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
