Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia's new central bank governor The decision by President Putin to nominate his economic advisor, Elvira Nabiullina, to be the next governor of the Central Bank of Russia is a blow to hopes for a more independent monetary policy... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's external vulnerabilities on the rise again After a steady improvement over the past year, the narrowing of Turkey’s current account deficit stalled in January. What’s more, the latest data reveal an increasing dependence on short-term or “hot”... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP breakdown points to consumer turnaround The breakdown of Q4 GDP data in Central and South Eastern Europe showed encouraging (albeit tentative) signs of an improvement in consumer spending. By contrast, exports were extremely weak. Leading... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally losing steam The rally in Emerging Europe’s financial markets has lost steam over the past few weeks. In part, this is due to the re-surfacing of tensions in the euro-zone following Italy’s inconclusive general... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish Bank signals end of easing cycle Today’s larger-than-expected cut in Polish interest rates means that we have probably reached the end of the easing cycle. But while some analysts are now suggesting that interest rates will be hiked... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation close to peaking Inflation in Russia rose to an 18-month high of 7.3% y/y in February but is now close to peaking. As it falls back over the coming months, interest rates are likely to be cut. Nonetheless, the room... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Matolcsy could turn his attention to Hungary's FX debt burden Events during the first few days of Gyorgy Matolcsy’s Governorship of Hungary’s central bank reinforce concerns about the Bank’s independence. At the very least, we are likely to see further interest... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish slowdown coming to an end The turnaround in the latest Polish data suggests that weak GDP growth in Q4 could mark the trough of the economic slowdown. This will no doubt lead to speculation that the National Bank’s easing... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs data point to rebound in growth in Q1 February’s PMI data add to recent evidence that the slump in Emerging Europe has bottomed out and that growth in the first quarter of this year should be an improvement on the final quarter of 2012... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set for a modest rebound Emerging market (EM) inflation looks to have found a floor in late 2012 and is set for a modest rebound over the first half of this year. Food inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts again, attention turns to new Governor The impending change at the helm of Hungary’s central bank will lead to further cuts in interest rates over the coming months. But the scope for easing will be determined in large part by whether... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: slowdown deepens The raft of activity data for January suggests that the slowdown in the Russian economy deepened at the start of this year. But while this will add to pressure on the Central Bank to start easing... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in a Catch-22 Although the Turkish central bank cut interest rates today, it also raised reserve requirements, so the overall impact on monetary conditions is ambiguous. The key point is that policymakers are in a... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4's dismal data a mix of euro-zone and domestic problems The dire set of Q4 GDP data released across Central & South Eastern Europe over the past week or so has led to obvious questions as to how the region is being affected by the crisis in the euro-zone... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update GDP growth sinks to post-crisis low The raft of Q4 GDP data released today for Emerging Europe suggests that growth in the region sank to a post-2009 low of 0.8% y/y. An improvement in sentiment within the euro-zone should feed through... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: investment slump points to weaker trend growth The sharp slowdown in Russian growth towards the end of last year has drawn attention away from a much more important point: namely that it was driven by a slump in investment. In this month’s Watch... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
