Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions still tight Our latest Banking Heat Map suggests that credit conditions in most countries in Emerging Europe remain extremely tight. The main exception is Turkey, where credit growth has accelerated again in... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian and Polish easing cycles nearing an end Policymakers in Hungary and Poland look set to cut interest rates at least once more, probably next month, but we think easing cycles are nearing an end in both countries. 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: is fiscal policy really impotent? The debate over the role of policy stimulus in reviving Russia’s flagging economy has been given extra impetus over the past week by the release of the IMF’s latest Article IV report, which argues... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak May's data to fuel stimulus debate Part of the weakness of May’s activity data in Russia can be explained by working day effects. Nonetheless, the bigger picture is that while there is some (albeit tentative) evidence that the slump in... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency sell-off unlikely to push EM inflation up Emerging Market (EM) inflation edged down last month and looks likely to remain subdued, in spite of the recent sell-off in EM currencies. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests hit Turkish markets Turkey’s financial markets have taken a pounding over the past few weeks as the recent wave of protests caused investors to take fright. Elsewhere, currencies and foreign currency bonds have lost... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's easing cycle probably at an end The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today probably marks the end of the easing cycle. In fact, policymakers have already tightened monetary conditions in recent weeks... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech PM's resignation a reminder of governance concerns The financial markets have shrugged off the resignation of Czech Prime Minister, Petr Necas, this morning. However, the corruption allegations that led to his departure, as well as the recent outbreak... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower interest rates not a panacea to Russia’s problems There are signs that pressure from the Russian government on both the central bank and commercial banks to lower interest rates may be starting to have an impact on borrowing costs in the real economy... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s ROM - not working as hoped The Turkish central bank’s much-vaunted “reserve option mechanism” doesn’t appear to have smoothed movements in the currency, as had been hoped. This means that the Bank may have to rely on more... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey Q1 GDP reveals familiar vulnerabilities First quarter GDP growth in Turkey was stronger than expected, driven by an impressive turnaround in domestic demand. But the flipside of domestic demand-led growth is that the current account deficit... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: weak Q1 GDP could add to market concerns The protests that have gripped Turkey over the past couple of weeks have come at a time when the country’s economic vulnerabilities appear to be mounting. This week, as well as the ongoing protests... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ignatiev keeps rates on hold in last CBR meeting Sergey Ignatiev ended his tenure as governor of the CBR by leaving key interest rates on hold today but, with inflation on course to fall over the second half of the year and Mr. Ignatiev’s successor... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How important has political stability been for Turkey's economy? Although it is difficult to draw a direct link between political stability and GDP growth, it does seem that better governance has played a key role in attracting the inflows of foreign capital that... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP breakdown provides glimmer of hope The breakdown of Q1 GDP across Emerging Europe showed that the region’s economy is probably in a slightly better shape than the (weak) headline growth figures would suggest. Accordingly, we think that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
