Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s industry slides deeper into recession The latest manufacturing PMI data suggest that industry in Emerging Europe is still stagnating. There are signs that activity in Turkey is accelerating, but this is being offset by further weakness in... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation drops to near-three-year low Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed to a near-three-year low in November. Fears of a food-led inflation shock this year have proved to be misplaced, as we had expected. While inflation is likely to... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and Turkey cut rates in spite of external risks Policymakers in Hungary and Turkey cut interest rates today as the general improvement in global risk appetite in recent months has reduced concerns over external vulnerabilities and allowed the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to weaken further in 2013 Inflation is falling sharply across Central and South Eastern Europe and we expect this to continue into next year. This should encourage further policy stimulus in the Czech Republic and Poland... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: interest rate "hike" does not alter monetary stance The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark lending rates on hold today, but hiked its overnight deposit rate by 25bps. Given the liquidity shortage in the interbank market and the fact that... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey struggling but current account limits room for easing The latest data from Turkey paint a pretty gloomy picture: Q3 GDP was weaker than expected and October’s industrial production figures suggest that the economy has made a poor start to Q4. The central... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP growth hit by weak domestic demand The detailed Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe make pretty grim reading. We fear that the slowdown in both domestic demand and exports may be a sign of things to come. 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian elections to put leu under spotlight The run-up to Romania’s parliamentary election on Sunday has been surprisingly quiet. But we think the markets may be underestimating the risk of fresh turbulence following the vote. 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to fall further than most expect For now, the Polish monetary easing cycle is progressing in 25bp steps, but we think the economy is set to slow further over the coming months which, ultimately, could trigger larger rate cuts by... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing stabilises November’s PMIs were a positive surprise for Central Europe, where it looks like the manufacturingsector stabilised. Elsewhere, signs that Turkey’s exports may be flat-lining are worrying as they mean... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish slowdown to trigger large rate cuts Q3 GDP data confirmed that the Polish economy has slowed sharply and with mounting external and domestic headwinds, we think growth will weaken further to just 1.0% in 2013. Accordingly, we expect... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle on shaky ground The improvement in global risk appetite has provided Hungary’s National Bank with the scope to loosen policy. But persistent financial vulnerabilities mean that, without an IMF deal in place, the Bank... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation slows, strong pick-up unlikely ahead Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed in October. Even if inflation does pick up again in the coming months as a result of past increases in commodity prices, the big picture is that any rise is... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC signals more aggressive easing At today’s MPC meeting, the Turkish central bank highlighted that it is becoming increasingly concerned about “hot” capital inflows and signalled that these could be countered with aggressive policy... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russian economy makes a poor start to Q4 Following last week’s disappointing GDP release, which showed that the economy slowed to just 2.9% y/y in Q3, the raft of activity data for October suggests that the slowdown has continued in Q4. We... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and the IMF one year on Tomorrow marks the first anniversary of the start of Hungary’s negotiations with the IMF. Unfortunately, we are no closer to a deal now than we were then. For the time being, the markets don’t appear... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
