Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's Central Bank resists government pressure to ease policy The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept its benchmark interest rates on hold today and signalled that, despite growing pressure from the government to ease policy, any move in rates in either direction... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower inflation is key to Turkish competitiveness The appreciation of Turkey’s real exchange rate has raised speculation that monetary policy could be loosened to weaken the lira. However, the most effective way to improve Turkey’s export... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets rally as euro-zone fears recede This is the first edition of our new monthly Emerging Europe Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Door hasn't closed on looser policy in Czech and Poland Policymakers in both Poland and the Czech Republic are becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook. But even so, we still expect a further cut in Polish interest rates next month. And while... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: pick-up in inflation rules out near-term rate cuts Russian inflation picked up to its fastest rate since late 2011 in January, giving the Central Bank a strong argument to withstand pressure from the government to start easing policy in the face of... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone risks ease but banks remain fragile The continued improvement in sentiment towards the euro-zone has simultaneously eased external funding conditions for Emerging Europe’s banks and reduced the threat of financial contagion from the... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show first signs of green shoots The latest batch of manufacturing PMI data from Emerging Europe provide the first signs that the region’s economy is turning around. However, for now at least, the recovery appears to be concentrated... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation looks to have bottomed out Having dropped to a near-three-year low, EM inflation looks to have now bottomed out. Inflation is likely to rise further in the near term due to strengthening demandside pressures and increases in... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: solid 2012 growth masks second half slowdown Preliminary data showing that Russia grew by a solid 3.4% in 2012 masks the fact that the economy slowed fairly sharply over the course of the year and is now growing by around 2% y/y. The recent... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle on shaky foundations Hungary’s external vulnerabilities mean that the scope for further interest rate cuts will depend on the forint holding up. The bigger picture, however, is that even if policy is eased further... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in Polish growth strengthens case for further stimulus Preliminary data showing that Poland’s economy grew by 2.0% in 2012 masks a slump in domestic demand towards the end of last year that has seen household spending growth drop to its slowest rate since... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a disappointing end to 2012 While most emerging markets staged a recovery in the final months of 2012, Russia appears to have bucked the trend. The latest raft of activity data suggests that growth weakened to just 2% y/y in Q4... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak economy bolsters case for Polish rate cuts There is a growing sense in the markets that the Polish National Bank could pause its easing cycle next month, but given the weakness of the most recent data, we think the case is less clear cut. For... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little scope for looser policy in Turkey Although the Turkish central bank cut some of its key interest rates today, this doesn’t necessarily amount to monetary easing. In fact, we think there is little scope for falls in market interest... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do our new oil forecasts mean for Russia? Modest upward revisions to our (below consensus) forecast for oil prices this year do not radically alter our view on the economic outlook for Russia. The budget deficit is likely to be slightly... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble flexibility is for real Some commentators are starting to question the extent to which Russia has moved towards greater currency flexibility in recent years. We see little to justify these doubts. Improving global sentiment... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
