Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally reverses course Most Emerging European stock markets and currencies have weakened over the past month on the back of the Cypriot crisis and fears of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. This serves as a timely... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy easing likely to focus on weaker ruble Pressure is mounting on Russian policymakers to act to stimulate the slowing economy. But unlike in 2008-09, there is little room for a large-scale fiscal stimulus. And substantial cuts in interest... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's "Funding for Growth" scheme lacks punch The “Funding for Growth” scheme announced by the National Bank of Hungary is not quite as radical as it could have been. This helps to explain the relatively muted reaction in the financial markets... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia Q4 GDP data old news, Q1 set to be even worse Detailed Q4 GDP data for Russia, released earlier today, confirmed what we already knew – namely that economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in three years in the final quarter of last year. More... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing recovery stutters The latest batch of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe shows that activity slowed across the board last month. Activity remains strongest in Turkey. But the weakness of the Central European... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy turning the corner The slowdown in the Turkish economy in Q4 of last year appears to be the trough, and our GDP tracker suggests that growth has picked up to around 2.5% y/y at the start of 2013. Nonetheless, the... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don't underestimate Ukraine's exposure to Cyprus Most attention has focussed on the impact that the Cypriot bail-out could have on Russian depositors, but the deal may pose much bigger risks for Ukraine, which is already on the brink of a balance of... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Cyprus crisis could exacerbate slowdown in Russia The loss to Russian investors from the levy on Cypriot bank deposits remains uncertain, but a plausible estimate is somewhere around €5bn. This is fairly small in the grand scheme of things and the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rise in inflation to be limited Emerging market inflation has risen in recent months and is set to continue along this upward path in the near future. Looking further ahead, however, weak core price pressures combined with the fact... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New-look Hungarian MPC resists more aggressive policy easing The fact that Hungary’s new-look MPC did not lower interest rates by more than 25bps today underlines the extent to which policymakers are constrained by the threat of a sell-off in the financial... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's rate cut a cosmetic change Today’s cut in Turkey’s overnight lending rate is a cosmetic change, and doesn’t reflect an easing of policy. In fact, the central bank has tightened policy in recent weeks. And with domestic demand... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak Polish data dent hopes of a turnaround The raft of weak activity data from Poland dents hopes that the economy turned the corner at the start of this year. With inflation set to remain below target, the National Bank is likely to resume... 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: the slowdown deepens A raft of weak activity data for February puts a big dent in hopes for a rebound in the Russian economy in Q1. What’s more, there are further signs that the slowdown is being driven as much by... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Cypriot bail-out deal mean for Russia? Russia’s financial markets have taken fright this morning following the announcement of details of the Cypriot bail-out, which looks set to hit Russian deposits there hard. But despite the fact that... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary mulls more radical policy shift The appointment of the new governor at Hungary’s National Bank has created havoc. Investors have become unnerved at the prospect of drastic measures to boost the economy, leading to a fresh sell-off... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers still waiting for inflation to fall The high rate of inflation continues to prevent the Central Bank of Russia from easing policy to support the slowing economy. But with inflation now close to peaking, interest rate cuts are possible... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
