Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy risks in Hungary to spell further forint weakness Amid the public spat over who exactly is responsible for the recent sell-off in the Hungarian forint, the point that is being overlooked is that local factors, rather than global risk appetite, now... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank signals rate cuts The Central Bank of Russia left its benchmark interest rates on hold this morning as was widely expected. More importantly, the tone of the accompanying statement reveals that the Bank has become... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New NBH Governor could catch markets off guard The appointment of Hungary’s new central bank Governor, due to be announced next month, has the potential to shatter the recent calm in the local financial markets. In this Watch, we assess the... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle - gradual for now Polish interest rates will be reduced further over the coming few months but, for now at least, the stabilisation of the economy in the final quarter of last year appears to have dissuaded the MPC... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Debate over size of Russian outflows misses the point A spat towards the end of last year over the true scale of capital flight from Russia risks missing the bigger picture, which is that capital continues to flow out of the country in the first place... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little room for policy stimulus in Romania In spite of the recent easing in financial market tensions, there is little scope for Romanian policymakers to cut interest rates to support growth. As such, we think the economy is likely to flatline... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update An alternative scenario for Turkey Turkey’s hefty external financing requirement makes it one of the most exposed economies in the emerging world to a fresh global shock, the most likely of which is a renewed escalation of the euro... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s industry slides deeper into recession The latest manufacturing PMI data suggest that industry in Emerging Europe is still stagnating. There are signs that activity in Turkey is accelerating, but this is being offset by further weakness in... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation drops to near-three-year low Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed to a near-three-year low in November. Fears of a food-led inflation shock this year have proved to be misplaced, as we had expected. While inflation is likely to... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and Turkey cut rates in spite of external risks Policymakers in Hungary and Turkey cut interest rates today as the general improvement in global risk appetite in recent months has reduced concerns over external vulnerabilities and allowed the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to weaken further in 2013 Inflation is falling sharply across Central and South Eastern Europe and we expect this to continue into next year. This should encourage further policy stimulus in the Czech Republic and Poland... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: interest rate "hike" does not alter monetary stance The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark lending rates on hold today, but hiked its overnight deposit rate by 25bps. Given the liquidity shortage in the interbank market and the fact that... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey struggling but current account limits room for easing The latest data from Turkey paint a pretty gloomy picture: Q3 GDP was weaker than expected and October’s industrial production figures suggest that the economy has made a poor start to Q4. The central... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP growth hit by weak domestic demand The detailed Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe make pretty grim reading. We fear that the slowdown in both domestic demand and exports may be a sign of things to come. 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian elections to put leu under spotlight The run-up to Romania’s parliamentary election on Sunday has been surprisingly quiet. But we think the markets may be underestimating the risk of fresh turbulence following the vote. 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to fall further than most expect For now, the Polish monetary easing cycle is progressing in 25bp steps, but we think the economy is set to slow further over the coming months which, ultimately, could trigger larger rate cuts by... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
