Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth may have slowed to 2% in Q3 The latest monthly activity data suggest that the Russian economy is now in the midst of a fairly sharp slowdown. We reckon that GDP growth slowed to around 2% y/y in Q3, from 4% y/y in Q2, and that... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tax hikes won’t prevent inflation from falling The hikes in indirect taxes announced by the Turkish government over the past few weeks will not prevent inflation from falling further towards the end of this year. But even so, current account... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s gold boost set to lose its shine A surge in gold sales to crisis-hit Iran has played a significant role in reducing Turkey’s current account deficit over the past year. However, gold sales alone are unlikely to bring Turkey’s... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Parent bank deleveraging rumbles on The latest data suggest that parent banks in Western Europe have continued to scale back funding to subsidiaries in the east, with those in Hungary hit disproportionally hard. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's credit growth a cause for concern? Russia stands out as the only economy in Emerging Europe currently experiencing rapid credit growth. In fact, the Central Bank is starting to worry about the risks of a credit bubble developing. We... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia shifts tone The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to keep interests rates on hold at 8.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement revealed a subtle yet important shift in tone, with policymakers now... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Russia’s dwindling current account surplus The forecast by the Central Bank of Russia that the economy will run a current account deficit by 2015 is significant insofar as it represents the first official acknowledgment of something we’ve been... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC waiting for further evidence before easing The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave interest rates on hold today suggests that policymakers want to see further evidence of a slowdown in the economy before easing policy. We doubt... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial recession deepens in Central Europe The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI for Russia and Turkey last month is good news, although the survey still suggests that industrial production in both countries stagnated in quarterly terms in Q3... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic nears the zero-bound The Czech National Bank cut interest rates to just 0.25% earlier today and suggested that, should further stimulus be necessary, this would probably take the form of intervention in the foreign... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts rates, Poland set to follow Hungary cut interest rates again today, but a combination of familiar financial vulnerabilities and a failure to make meaningful progress on an IMF deal means that the room for further significant... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: inflation will rise with or without a grain export ban The Russian authorities have raised the prospect of export bans on grains to contain local food inflation. But past experience suggests that such moves have had little impact on domestic prices, and... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: fiscal slippage won’t spook bond markets Financial markets are unlikely to be spooked by signs of fiscal slippage in Poland – compared with the rest of Europe, the government’s finances are a picture of health. In fact, we think bond yields... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Q3 growth may be weakest in two years August’s raft of activity data confirm that the Russian economy is running out of steam – in the first two months of Q3 growth appears to have slowed to its weakest pace in two years. With limited... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Threat of financial contagion eases, but risks remain The recent news that the ECB is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral government bonds has reduced the risk that banks in Emerging Europe will be hit by financial contagion from the... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey steps into easing mode, but impact likely to be limited Today’s cut in the Turkish overnight lending rate is partly cosmetic and the impact on domestic demand is likely to be limited. We wouldn’t rule out a few more steps to narrow the “interest rate... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
