Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing still in recession The latest PMIs show that manufacturing in the highly open economies of Central Europe remains in recession due in large part to falling external demand. By contrast, the Turkish PMI data provide... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle running out of room Hungary continued to cut interest rates today, but financial vulnerabilities and a lack of progress towards an IMF deal mean that there is limited room for further easing. Accordingly, we don’t think... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Yanukovich’s victory is bad news for Ukraine With 70% of the vote now counted, Ukraine’s ruling coalition looks likely to maintain its majority in parliament (although by a dangerously thin margin). The good news is that the election has so far... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to edge up There are tentative signs that the slowdown in Emerging Market (EM) inflation seen over the past year has bottomed out. We expect EM inflation to quicken over the next six months, mainly due to faster... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian government too optimistic on deficit reduction Earlier today we attended a meeting with Hungarian Minister of Economy, Zoltan Csefalvay. We left with the impression that the government’s plans for deficit reduction are still too optimistic and... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: capital outflows still a cause for concern Having accelerated towards the end of last year, capital outflows from Russia have eased in recent quarters. Nevertheless, they remain substantial. And with the Central Bank now forecasting a current... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate cut a symbolic move Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut its overnight lending rate – which forms the upper bound of its “interest rate corridor” – is a largely symbolic move that is most likely... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth may have slowed to 2% in Q3 The latest monthly activity data suggest that the Russian economy is now in the midst of a fairly sharp slowdown. We reckon that GDP growth slowed to around 2% y/y in Q3, from 4% y/y in Q2, and that... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tax hikes won’t prevent inflation from falling The hikes in indirect taxes announced by the Turkish government over the past few weeks will not prevent inflation from falling further towards the end of this year. But even so, current account... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s gold boost set to lose its shine A surge in gold sales to crisis-hit Iran has played a significant role in reducing Turkey’s current account deficit over the past year. However, gold sales alone are unlikely to bring Turkey’s... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Parent bank deleveraging rumbles on The latest data suggest that parent banks in Western Europe have continued to scale back funding to subsidiaries in the east, with those in Hungary hit disproportionally hard. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's credit growth a cause for concern? Russia stands out as the only economy in Emerging Europe currently experiencing rapid credit growth. In fact, the Central Bank is starting to worry about the risks of a credit bubble developing. We... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia shifts tone The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to keep interests rates on hold at 8.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement revealed a subtle yet important shift in tone, with policymakers now... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Russia’s dwindling current account surplus The forecast by the Central Bank of Russia that the economy will run a current account deficit by 2015 is significant insofar as it represents the first official acknowledgment of something we’ve been... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC waiting for further evidence before easing The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave interest rates on hold today suggests that policymakers want to see further evidence of a slowdown in the economy before easing policy. We doubt... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial recession deepens in Central Europe The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI for Russia and Turkey last month is good news, although the survey still suggests that industrial production in both countries stagnated in quarterly terms in Q3... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
