Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s easing cycle appears to have come to an end Following today’s decision to lower Romanian interest rates, Governor Isarescu hinted that the rate cutting cycle may now have come to an end. Policymakers seem to have become concerned that they can... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMI data highlight uneven recovery January’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence that the economies of Central Europe are enjoying a decent recovery, but that manufacturing in Emerging Europe’s two largest economies, Russia... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency turmoil not yet a risk to EM inflation As things stand, the recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies do not appear to be a major threat to EM inflation. Even those emerging economies that have borne the brunt of the currency... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia struggles as the rest of Emerging Europe recovers Today’s release of 2013 Russian GDP data suggests that while growth in the rest of Emerging Europe started to recover towards the end of last year, growth in Russia remained extremely sluggish. The... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Russia become the next EM to come under fire? The sharp sell-off in the ruble over the past week has led some to question whether Russia could be the next EM in line to hike interest rates. For now, we suspect that the Central Bank will stick to... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update 2013 GDP data show Poland is an EM bright spot It’s tempting to interpret today’s Polish 2013 GDP data, which showed that growth was as slow last year as it was in 2009, as further evidence of deteriorating growth prospects in the emerging world... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey edges back to orthodoxy The operation of Turkey’s interest rate corridor means that the true extent of monetary tightening announced at last night’s emergency MPC meeting is a little less than the aggressive hike in the... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and Russia hit hard by the EM sell-off The Turkish lira has been the worst performing EM currency after the Argentine peso so far this year. This has forced the central bank to announce an emergency MPC meeting later today, at which it... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still struggling at the end of 2013 The raft of Russian activity data for December suggests that GDP growth may have picked up a little to around 1.5% y/y in Q4, from 1.2% y/y in Q3. For the year as a whole, this would imply average... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's central bank walking on a tightrope The Ukrainian National Bank’s decision to loosen its grip on the hryvnia will bring benefits in terms of restoring external competitiveness. But there are near-term risks too, including higher... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's deteriorating external position a sign that all is not well Russia’s current account surplus declined over the course of 2013 and, for the first time since the 2008/09 crisis, became insufficient to cover capital outflows. Of course, with over $500bn in FX... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank shoots itself in the foot In spite of the recent sharp fall in the lira, high inflation and rising inflation expectations, the Turkish central bank (CBRT) caved in to pressure from the government and resisted hiking interest... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the threat from Turkish corporate FX debt The recent sharp fall in the lira doesn’t appear to have led to significant FX debt servicing problems for Turkish companies. But given the rapid expansion of corporate FX debt over the past decade... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Better governance needed for Turkish income “convergence” Improved governance appears to have been a key ingredient in Turkey’s economic success story over the past decade. But further reforms will be needed if Turkish incomes are to continue “converging”... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2014 hold in store for Emerging Europe? After a torrid run over the past five years, things are looking on the up for Emerging Europe. Of course, the region will remain vulnerable to events in the euro-zone. However, so long as the single... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does rising confidence in Hungary herald stronger growth? Last month’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for Hungary rose to its highest level for over a decade and, on past form, this is consistent with GDP growth of 5% y/y or so. However, it’s worth noting... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
