Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the deflation threat in Central Europe? The weakness of the latest inflation data in Central Europe has sparked fears that, like the euro-zone, the region could be at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral. In this Watch, we argue that... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rate cuts now look unlikely The latest rise in Russian inflation, coupled with mounting concerns over the rapid expansion of consumer credit, mean that even the modest cuts in interest rates that we had pencilled in for early... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: a decent Q3, but risks growing Turkish GDP growth held up relatively well in Q3 in spite of the turmoil in the financial markets and a substantial tightening of monetary policy. However, this was made possible by a rapid expansion... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What are the risks of Russia’s consumer debt build-up? Recent comments from Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of Russia’s central bank, have raised questions about the sustainability of Russia’s boom in consumer lending. While it may be too early to worry... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: currency crisis seems a bigger threat than debt default The recent escalation of political protests in Kiev has put Ukraine's fragile external position back in the spotlight. A full-blown balance of payments crisis remains a real risk. The one crumb of... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate hikes unlikely until 2015 Governor Belka reiterated his “forward guidance” at today’s post-MPC meeting press conference, pledging not to raise interest rates until the end of the first half of 2014 at the earliest. For our... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Q3 led by pick-up in export growth The breakdown of GDP data released this morning for several Central and South Eastern European economies confirmed that the moderate recovery in the third quarter was supported in large part by... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political unrest could push Ukraine into an economic crisis The reaction in the Ukrainian financial markets to escalating political protests in Kiev has been smaller than might have been expected. There is a large amount of uncertainty about what will happen... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update November’s PMIs suggest recovery is strengthening The latest PMIs for Emerging Europe show that the region's manufacturing sector strengthened further in November. The important exception is Russia, whose PMI fell back last month, adding to the... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish recovery supported by turnaround in domestic demand The detailed breakdown of third quarter Polish GDP data showed that, while net trade remained the main driver of growth, domestic demand has finally come out of its year-long slump. 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to remain anchored Emerging market (EM) inflation has crept up in recent months, but it remains low by historic standards. Looking ahead, inflation should be kept anchored by subdued domestic price pressures and recent... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further modest rate cuts in Hungary may be on the cards Today's cut in Hungarian interest rates is likely to be followed up by one more cut next month, which we currently think will mark the end of the easing cycle. However, the recent sharp fall in... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Ukraine's move towards Russia There’s a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next in Ukraine following the government’s decision to suspend preparations for an Association Agreement with the EU, apparently under pressure from... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian and Turkish markets continue to underperform It’s been a bumpy few weeks for equities and currencies in the region. Those in the two largest economies, Turkey and Russia, have underperformed. Meanwhile, the Czech koruna has posted the largest... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Croatia’s fiscal woes a result of weak growth In spite of mounting speculation that Croatia’s debt burden will force the authorities to turn to the IMF for help, we think that the country might still be able to avoid a bail-out. Even so, these... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy makes a weak start to Q4 Following last week’s disappointing Q3 GDP growth figures, today’s release of activity data for October suggests that the Russian economy made a weak start to Q4 too. Indeed, the only crumb of comfort... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
