Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank surprises markets with a rate hike An acceleration in inflation, in part due to the recent sharp drop in the ruble, caused Russia’s central bank to hike interest rates by 50bp today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain high... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is an El Niño a risk to EM inflation? The current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world shows no signs of nearing an end. One possible risk to the outlook is an El Niño, which weather forecasters warn could be on its way, and... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Unrest in east Ukraine has limited effect on markets Financial markets across Emerging Europe have proved relatively resilient to the recent escalation in political unrest in eastern Ukraine. But at the same time, the recovery from the losses earlier in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy appears to have contracted in Q1 March’s activity data show that although the crisis in Ukraine and the first round of Western sanctions have not caused Russia’s economy to collapse, annual growth has still slowed substantially and... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy less resilient than commonly perceived The escalation of unrest in the east of Ukraine has thrust the issue of Western sanctions against Russia back onto the agenda. No side would win in a tit-for-tat exchange of sanctions, but by the same... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal stimulus alone won’t revive Russia’s economy The discussion about how to soften the fallout from the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy has started to shift towards fiscal stimulus, with key ministers advocating looser fiscal policy earlier... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to remain loose as economy strengthens Following the decision to leave interest rates on hold earlier today, Governor Belka acknowledged that the Polish economy appears to be undergoing a strong recovery at this afternoon’s post-meeting... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Ukraine’s IMF deal Unrest in the east of Ukraine has cast the spotlight back onto the political troubles facing the country’s interim government. What happens from here is highly uncertain, but in the meantime the... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira at risk if Turkish MPC starts to ease policy The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has caused the central bank’s (CBRT’s) MPC to adopt a more dovish stance, with Governor Basci suggesting that measures might be taken this month to loosen... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary opts for another four more years of Orbanomics Prime Minister Orban’s Fidesz party swept to victory in yesterday’s parliamentary election in Hungary and, in the very near term, his premiership is likely to come alongside a strengthening economic... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery in late 2013 has now fizzled out The final estimate of 2013 GDP data reveals that Russia’s economy picked up a little pace towards the end of last year. But our GDP Tracker suggests that the recovery had already started to fizzle out... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two-speed growth in manufacturing Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month, but in the highly-open economies of Central Europe the data are still consistent with robust manufacturing output growth, of 7-10% y/y. By... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update AK party’s support may suffer from weakening growth Turkish municipal election results showed that PM Erdogan and the ruling AK party continue to enjoy high levels of popularity, bolstered by the strength of the economy. Nonetheless, in spite of today... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian easing cycle at an end The deterioration in the inflation outlook and concerns about triggering a sell-off in the currency caused the National Bank of Romania to bring its easing cycle to an end. But, barring a sharp fall... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to drive up EM inflation A spike in global agricultural commodity prices has raised concerns that the current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world could be nearing an end. But the recent increases still leave... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low inflation to keep Czech monetary policy loose The weakness of Czech inflation prompted the National Bank’s MPC to strike a slightly more dovish tone at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference. The strengthening economic recovery means... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
