Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF deal brings Ukraine back from the brink This morning’s announcement by the IMF that it has reached a staff level agreement to provide financial support to Ukraine of $14-18bn reduces the risk of a balance of payments crisis and a default on... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further rate cuts in Hungary now look unlikely Following the cut in interest rates in Hungary earlier today, the MPC gave the clearest signal yet that the easing cycle has come to an end. Policymakers did not completely close the door on further... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets suffer as Ukraine crisis deepens Russia’s financial markets have posted heavy losses following the escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula. Indeed, Russia’s stock market and the ruble have been the worst performers among... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from the ruble’s fall The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few months is unlikely to have a major impact on Russia’s economy as a whole, but it will create winners and losers within the economy. The government is... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions to remain tight The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but the bigger picture is that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that policymakers will have to keep monetary... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian outflows could total $70bn in Q1 We estimate that net private sector outflows of capital from Russia have totalled $50bn since the start of the year – equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. What’s more, if the current pace of capital flight... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s “temporary” rate hike to be longer-lasting Having hiked interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier this month, it was always likely that the Central Bank of Russia would leave them unchanged at today’s (scheduled) Board meeting... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do elections in Hungary and Turkey hold in store? Ruling parties look set to win handsomely in parliamentary elections in Hungary and local elections in Turkey in the coming weeks. However, while the outcomes may be foregone conclusions, both... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Russia’s economy to Western sanctions? The direct economic impact of the sanctions that have apparently been agreed by Western governments on Russia is likely to be limited. But the indirect impact – including the anticipation of further... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s banks still the economy’s weakest link It looks like Ukraine’s banking sector has withstood the political crisis in better shape than we had feared. Credit conditions are likely to tighten sharply over the coming months, but a messier... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Domestic demand joining the recovery The breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe shows that, while exports remain the main driver of growth in the region, domestic demand is coming out of its recent slump. 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC extends "forward guidance" While the National Bank of Poland pledged to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the end of Q3 this afternoon, we think that the weakness of inflation should allow the MPC to leave interest... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis a political, not economic, crisis for CEE The economies of Central and Eastern European are the most exposed to spillovers from the crisis in Ukraine, but as things stand the economic impact is likely to be limited. Admittedly, the crisis has... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the economic costs of the Ukraine crisis for Russia Although financial markets in Russia have tumbled today, the immediate fallout from the Ukraine crisis for Russia’s economy might well be less severe than many fear. Nonetheless, with growth already... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central European manufacturers leading the recovery February’s PMIs show that manufacturing in Emerging Europe continued to strengthen. Poland and the Czech Republic are leading the way and, encouragingly, the PMI components suggest that domestic... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
