Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets rebound as Ukraine concerns take a back seat Russian equities and the ruble have been the region’s best performers over the past month following conciliatory remarks from Russia’s President Putin as well as Petro Poroshenko’s victory in Ukraine... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate cuts not the solution to Turkey’s competitiveness problem The Turkish government is becoming increasingly vocal in its demands for the central bank to cut interest rates, arguing that high interest rates risk making the lira overvalued which would damage... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian policymakers to keep monetary conditions loose Having cut interest rates earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary once again didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary policy. The MPC appears to have become a little more dovish... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates in spite of high inflation and external risks Following today’s surprise move by the Turkish central bank to lower its one-week repo rate, it looks like the MPC will continue to ease policy over the coming months. But given the country’s... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Impact of currency weakness on inflation has been muted The sharp fall in many emerging market (EM) currencies over the past year has not led to the big EM-wide inflation shock that some were predicting. Looking ahead, we expect inflation across the... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gazprom’s China deal not a game changer for Russia’s economy The benefits to the Russian economy from the $400bn deal signed earlier today between Russia and China are likely to be smaller than most seem to think. Instead, the importance of the deal is largely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s recovery strengthened in Q1 The preliminary estimates of first quarter GDP for Central and South Eastern Europe provide further evidence of a gradual recovery in the region. The main factor behind the improvement in growth... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market may be too quick to price in Russia rate cuts The recent rebound in the ruble has led the market to price in interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) over the coming months. We think this is premature. Leaving aside the fact that... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data to show strengthening recovery in Central Europe This week’s preliminary first quarter GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe are likely to show that the region’s economic recovery strengthened at the start of the year, in spite of fears of... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rise in the Turkish lira belies external vulnerabilities The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has taken many analysts – ourselves included – by surprise, not least because the economy still has large external vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin’s shift in tone a small step in the right direction President Putin’s call on pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine to postpone a referendum on independence scheduled for this Sunday has once again raised hopes that a diplomatic resolution to the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC raises prospect of ending “forward guidance” The Polish MPC hinted at today’s post-meeting press conference that it may not extend its pledge to leave interest rates unchanged beyond Q3. While this could be interpreted as a sign that the MPC is... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian monetary policy to remain loose for prolonged period With inflation in Romania set to rise over the second half of this year, it seems unlikely that there will be further interest rate cuts. But equally, large amounts of spare capacity in the economy... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in Polish PMI may overstate impact of Ukraine crisis The surprising fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI last month could be interpreted as a sign that the crisis in Ukraine is taking its toll on Central and Eastern Europe. However, we would be cautious... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF approves Ukraine deal, but enormous challenges remain The approval by the IMF of its $17bn financial support package for Ukraine is likely to ease concerns that the economy could suffer a near-term crisis, but severe challenges remain. The short-term... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update National Bank of Hungary keeps its options open Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary appears to be keeping all its options open regarding future movements in the policy rate. For what it’s worth, we... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
