Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Ukraine’s IMF deal Unrest in the east of Ukraine has cast the spotlight back onto the political troubles facing the country’s interim government. What happens from here is highly uncertain, but in the meantime the... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira at risk if Turkish MPC starts to ease policy The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has caused the central bank’s (CBRT’s) MPC to adopt a more dovish stance, with Governor Basci suggesting that measures might be taken this month to loosen... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary opts for another four more years of Orbanomics Prime Minister Orban’s Fidesz party swept to victory in yesterday’s parliamentary election in Hungary and, in the very near term, his premiership is likely to come alongside a strengthening economic... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery in late 2013 has now fizzled out The final estimate of 2013 GDP data reveals that Russia’s economy picked up a little pace towards the end of last year. But our GDP Tracker suggests that the recovery had already started to fizzle out... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two-speed growth in manufacturing Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month, but in the highly-open economies of Central Europe the data are still consistent with robust manufacturing output growth, of 7-10% y/y. By... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update AK party’s support may suffer from weakening growth Turkish municipal election results showed that PM Erdogan and the ruling AK party continue to enjoy high levels of popularity, bolstered by the strength of the economy. Nonetheless, in spite of today... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian easing cycle at an end The deterioration in the inflation outlook and concerns about triggering a sell-off in the currency caused the National Bank of Romania to bring its easing cycle to an end. But, barring a sharp fall... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to drive up EM inflation A spike in global agricultural commodity prices has raised concerns that the current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world could be nearing an end. But the recent increases still leave... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low inflation to keep Czech monetary policy loose The weakness of Czech inflation prompted the National Bank’s MPC to strike a slightly more dovish tone at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference. The strengthening economic recovery means... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF deal brings Ukraine back from the brink This morning’s announcement by the IMF that it has reached a staff level agreement to provide financial support to Ukraine of $14-18bn reduces the risk of a balance of payments crisis and a default on... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further rate cuts in Hungary now look unlikely Following the cut in interest rates in Hungary earlier today, the MPC gave the clearest signal yet that the easing cycle has come to an end. Policymakers did not completely close the door on further... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets suffer as Ukraine crisis deepens Russia’s financial markets have posted heavy losses following the escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula. Indeed, Russia’s stock market and the ruble have been the worst performers among... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from the ruble’s fall The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few months is unlikely to have a major impact on Russia’s economy as a whole, but it will create winners and losers within the economy. The government is... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions to remain tight The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but the bigger picture is that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that policymakers will have to keep monetary... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian outflows could total $70bn in Q1 We estimate that net private sector outflows of capital from Russia have totalled $50bn since the start of the year – equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. What’s more, if the current pace of capital flight... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s “temporary” rate hike to be longer-lasting Having hiked interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier this month, it was always likely that the Central Bank of Russia would leave them unchanged at today’s (scheduled) Board meeting... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
