Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy continues to struggle The weakness of August’s activity data for Russia is partly due to working day effects since August of this year had one fewer working day than August of 2012. Even so, today’s data reinforce our view... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers waiting for “taper” reaction Having been promised “surprise” measures to shore up the lira by Governor Basci, today’s Turkish rate setting meeting was a non-event. Policymakers appear to be waiting to see how the financial... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Have Emerging Europe’s banks turned the corner? Emerging Europe has been the laggard of the emerging world over the past few years, due in large part to problems in its banks. But with the region seemingly on the mend, might local banking sectors... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia rate overhaul won’t alter monetary conditions The Central Bank of Russia today laid out plans to revamp and streamline the instruments through which it provides liquidity to banks. Over time, these should help to increase transparency but they... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: hryvnia’s stability masks underlying weakness At first sight, the stability of the hryvnia over the past few months suggests that Ukraine has been relatively insulated from the sharp sell-off in other emerging markets. But a closer look reveals... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth looking increasingly unsustainable Following today’s stronger-than-expected Turkish Q2 GDP data, we are revising up our growth forecast for this year as a whole. However, growth was driven by credit-fuelled consumer spending and a... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia dwindling current account surplus: causes & consequences Despite continued high oil prices, Russia’s current account surplus has fallen from around 7% of GDP prior to the 2008/09 crisis to around 2% now and is on track to slip into a deficit by 2015. Given... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Shift towards tighter policy in Poland looks some way off Governor Belka provided few clues at his post-MPC press conference about when the Polish National Bank might shift towards tightening mode. But with the economic recovery unlikely to be accompanied by... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 recovery supported by strengthening euro-zone The breakdown of GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe confirmed that the acceleration in growth seen in Q2 was largely a result of stronger demand from the euro-zone. But there were also... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show further signs of recovery in Central Europe The raft of manufacturing PMIs across Central Europe for August provide further evidence that the region’s recovery is gathering pace, helped by the improvement in the German economy. In contrast... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish recovery driven by exports The breakdown of Q2 Polish GDP data underlined that its tentative economic turnaround is largely a result of stronger external demand. But with the recovery in the euro-zone set to be modest, growth... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What might the next twist in Turkish monetary policy be? The Turkish central bank appears ready to add to its policy toolkit in order to support the lira. No details have been provided yet, but our best guess is that, if new measures are introduced, they... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle slowing down The fact that the Hungarian central bank cut interest rates by just 20bp today highlights that, even though the forint came through the recent EM sell-off relatively well, Hungary is still highly... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness unlikely to cause EM inflation to rise The sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies this month is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM-wide inflation. Indeed, looking ahead, we think the outlook for EM inflation is fairly benign. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble stays out of the firing line... for now The ruble has fared surprisingly well during the latest EM sell-off, in large part due to the fact that oil prices have edged up over recent weeks. Nonetheless, the ruble is still weaker than the... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Coming through the EM sell-off relatively unscathed Emerging European currencies have generally withstood the recent EM financial market sell-off relatively well. Meanwhile, equities in Central Europe have made strong gains over the past month. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
