Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show Czech recovery, early signs of improvement in Russia The partial release of October’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s recovery continued at the start of the fourth quarter. The Czech PMI is now... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle nearing an end Hungarian policymakers cut interest rates again today, but there are a whole host of reasons to think that the easing cycle is nearing an end. The economy is recovering and core inflation is rising... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech election uncertainty unlikely to have big economic impact This weekend’s inconclusive Czech legislative election has raised the prospect of a prolonged period of political uncertainty, which many suggest could have a detrimental impact on the economy and the... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging European markets outperform other EMs Equity markets in Emerging Europe have outperformed the rest of the emerging world over the past month. The largest gains have come in Central Europe, where the growth outlook continues to improve... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: muddling through, for now The early signs suggest that Turkey’s economy has emerged from this summer’s turbulence in financial markets relatively unscathed. Nonetheless, while GDP growth appears to have held up, it has been... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation likely to remain in check Emerging market (EM) inflation has been fairly stable in recent months. It edged up in September but there is little reason to think that a sharp acceleration is in the offing. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions likely to remain tight The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold today reflects the stabilisation of capital inflows and the strengthening of the lira over the past couple of months. But... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Economic recovery remains uneven The latest economic data from Emerging Europe shows that, while growth in the region as a whole is accelerating, the recovery remains extremely uneven. In Poland, GDP growth seems to have picked up... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation to stay low even as growth recovers Inflation in Central and South Eastern Europe slowed to a record low in September and is likely to remain subdued throughout 2014, even as growth recovers. This in turn should mean that monetary... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Light at the end of the austerity tunnel While the economic challenges facing Russia and Turkey are growing, we're becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook for the rest of Emerging Europe. The pick-up in growth in recent months has... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank allows the dust to settle Having introduced an entirely new benchmark interest rate at its last meeting and unveiled new lending facilities at each of its two meetings prior to that, the Central Bank of Russia opted to do... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s banks still vulnerable, but new crisis now less likely Ukraine’s banks have substantially decreased their external vulnerabilities over the past few years, meaning that they are now better placed to withstand a modest hryvnia devaluation and/or a slowdown... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s slowdown starting to hit public finances The slump in Russia’s economy over the past year is starting to weigh on its public finances. The deterioration has so far been fairly modest and the fiscal position looks manageable for now. But the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking the long view The tendency of most forecasters (including ourselves) to focus on the growth prospects for Emerging Europe over a one or two year horizon means that the region’s medium-term growth potential is often... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates likely to remain on hold for a prolonged period With Poland’s economy now picking up, attention is turning to when monetary policy might start to be tightened. The financial markets are pricing in a first rate hike in Q1 of next year. However, we... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update September’s PMIs show Turkey rebounding, Russia lagging September’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the highly-open Central European economies continued to recover and that Turkey’s manufacturing sector rebounded. However, growth in Turkey appears to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
