Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey continues to tighten The further hike in Turkish interest rates today merely underlines how vulnerable the economy is to the recent slowdown in capital inflows. Looking ahead, much will depend on how the current EM sell... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a modest improvement, but growth remains weak 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia recession may be short-lived but growth will remain weak The slump in Q2 growth in Russia reported last week appears consistent with the economy having fallen into recession during the first half of 2013. The good news is that barring an unforeseen external... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth comes with mounting risks Turkey’s economy has picked up pace over the first half of this year, but this has been fuelled by a sharprise in credit and has come at the expense of a renewed widening of the current account... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe picks up pace in Q2 Growth in Central Europe accelerated in Q2, helped by improving conditions in the euro-zone, but the economies of South Eastern Europe seem to have weakened once again. The potential for further flare... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia enters recession Second quarter GDP data from Russia were not only much weaker than expected – according to our estimates they are also consistent with the economy having fallen into recession during the first half of... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia bides its time The Central Bank of Russia kept interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement provides some hints that policy may start to be eased over the coming months. Even so, dramatic cuts in... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data likely to provide grounds for optimism The raft of GDP data due over the next few weeks is likely to show that growth in Emerging Europe picked up in the second quarter of this year. However, while the region as a whole seems to have... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cuts to come in Romania The surprise decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to accelerate the pace of policy easing reflects several factors, including a growing conviction that inflation will fall back by the end of... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC seemingly split on unconventional policy The Czech National Bank kept interest rates on hold at 0.05% today, but the post-meeting press conference provided the clearest signs yet that some policymakers are keen to adopt unconventional policy... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update July’s PMIs point to continued recovery in Central Europe July’s manufacturing PMI surveys suggest that the recovery that started in Poland and the Czech Republic towards the end of the second quarter continued in the first month of the third quarter. Both... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Stimulus plan unlikely to transform Russia’s outlook The stimulus measures agreed by Russia’s cabinet yesterday are unlikely to radically transform the outlook for the economy. We continue to expect a modest recovery over the second half of this year... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation turns around, but big pick-up unlikely Emerging market inflation rose last month, but the combination of soft core price pressures and falling global food price inflation means that any further increases are likely to be limited. 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets recovering from June’s sell-off Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their losses from the sell-off last month. Looking ahead, we see some scope for gains in the region’s equities and currencies over the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s turn to “forward guidance” less bold than at first sight The National Bank of Hungary’s commitment to cut interest rates to a new record low of 3.0-3.5% over the coming months appears to be a bold step into the world of “forward guidance”. But the reality... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far do Turkish rates need to rise? In a statement last week the governor of Turkey’s central bank, Erdem Basci, gave markets a strong steer that interest rates would be raised at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But this is unlikely to result... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
