Emerging Europe Economics Update Economic recovery remains uneven The latest economic data from Emerging Europe shows that, while growth in the region as a whole is accelerating, the recovery remains extremely uneven. In Poland, GDP growth seems to have picked up... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation to stay low even as growth recovers Inflation in Central and South Eastern Europe slowed to a record low in September and is likely to remain subdued throughout 2014, even as growth recovers. This in turn should mean that monetary... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Light at the end of the austerity tunnel While the economic challenges facing Russia and Turkey are growing, we're becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook for the rest of Emerging Europe. The pick-up in growth in recent months has... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank allows the dust to settle Having introduced an entirely new benchmark interest rate at its last meeting and unveiled new lending facilities at each of its two meetings prior to that, the Central Bank of Russia opted to do... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s banks still vulnerable, but new crisis now less likely Ukraine’s banks have substantially decreased their external vulnerabilities over the past few years, meaning that they are now better placed to withstand a modest hryvnia devaluation and/or a slowdown... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s slowdown starting to hit public finances The slump in Russia’s economy over the past year is starting to weigh on its public finances. The deterioration has so far been fairly modest and the fiscal position looks manageable for now. But the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking the long view The tendency of most forecasters (including ourselves) to focus on the growth prospects for Emerging Europe over a one or two year horizon means that the region’s medium-term growth potential is often... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates likely to remain on hold for a prolonged period With Poland’s economy now picking up, attention is turning to when monetary policy might start to be tightened. The financial markets are pricing in a first rate hike in Q1 of next year. However, we... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update September’s PMIs show Turkey rebounding, Russia lagging September’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the highly-open Central European economies continued to recover and that Turkey’s manufacturing sector rebounded. However, growth in Turkey appears to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s easing cycle nearing an end The Romanian central bank cut interest rates again today against the backdrop of weak growth and falling inflation. However, the Bank lowered rates by less than it did in August due, it seems, to... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s external debt burden not a cause for concern (yet) A recent warning from Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister has led to renewed concerns about the country’s growing burden of external debt. But while debt has risen sharply in recent quarters, we don’t... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery gains momentum September’s European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) allow us to form an early view of how Emerging Europe has performed in Q3, and the good news is that the recovery seems to be... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Improving Czech economy reduces need for FX intervention The strengthening of the Czech economy is preventing the National Bank from plumping for furtherpolicy easing, namely FX intervention to weaken the koruna. With the economic recovery still fragile... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Few signs of EM inflation pressures Emerging market inflation edged down in August and there’s little evidence to suggest that there will be a significant rise in price pressures over the coming months. 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A little further to go in Hungary’s easing cycle Following today’s cut in Hungarian interest rates, we are revising our year-end rate forecast to 3.00% from 3.50%. With inflation below target and the economic recovery still fragile, it looks like... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe has muted reaction to QE tapering delay The reaction of the financial markets in Central Europe to the US Fed’s decision to hold off tapering QE was decidedly muted. But these countries’ markets didn’t suffer the large sell-offs seen... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
