Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario Marcel, the current Central Bank Governor, as the next Finance Minister signals that his government may pursue prudent fiscal policies. And in Brazil, former left-wing president Lula (the front-runner in the presidential race) may be moderating his stance, having mooted to have asked Geraldo Alckmin, previously Lula’s centre-right rival, to be his running mate. However, there are still lingering risks in the region. Argentina’s government continues to play hardball with the IMF as the clock ticks down to reach a new deal. The make-up of Chile’s new constitution remains uncertain. And fiscal discipline could still waver around elections in Brazil and Colombia. These risks, and the implications for public debt trajectories, will probably put renewed pressure on currencies across Latin America.
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