Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s IMF deal #23, tariff relief, Hegseth in Panama

One key feature of Argentina's latest IMF deal – which the Fund's Board is set to vote on today – is likely to be a shift towards a more flexible exchange rate and an easing of capital controls. While...

11th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Getting off relatively lightly

Governments across Latin America are likely to be breathing sighs of relief following US President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday - they've ended up facing tariff rates at the lower end of...

4th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico spared the worst, but growth will still be weak

Mexico got off lightly from the tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday and the overall hit to the economy from US trade measures may be a bit smaller than we’d initially thought. Even so, we...

3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing steady, but tariffs cloud the outlook

The EM manufacturing PMI ticked up in March on the back of a pick-up in China as well as a continued recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. But tariffs present a major headwind to EMs’ industrial...

1st April 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: budget deficit gives no room to cushion tariff hit

The blowout in Mexico’s budget deficit to its largest level since the 1980s last year means that the government has little scope to offset the hit to the economy from US tariffs. There’ll probably be...

31st March 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China?

The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries...

31st March 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Mexico: tariffs, carve outs and Banxico

Mexico is the most exposed country to the auto tariffs that US President Trump announced this week and, while there are carve-outs for USMCA-compliant trade, these will probably provide little relief...

28th March 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The statement accompanying the Mexican central bank’s (Banxico’s) decision to lower its policy rate by another 50bp cut, to 9.00%, today suggests that growth concerns are rapidly overtaking inflation...

27th March 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2025)

Outflows from EM capital markets have eased in recent weeks as the US dollar has faltered. But a period of sustained inflows looks unlikely as President Trump presses ahead with tariff policies that...

27th March 2025 · 0 mins read

Global Economics Update

The implications of US vehicle tariffs

In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are...

27th March 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The protectionist shift in the US will weigh heavily on Mexico’s economy, which at...

26th March 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar. 2025)

The further easing of core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of March combined with recent weak activity data paves the way for Banxico to deliver another 50bp cut at its meeting on...

24th March 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind

Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our...

20th March 2025 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

​​Mapping China’s presence in Latin America​

China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat by the US. This Focus uses interactive charts to map out economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and...

19th March 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Trump tariffs on Mexico: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Mexico may have received a (belated) reprieve from US tariffs this week, but some goods will still be subject to US duties now and there’s still the lingering uncertainty about what (if any) tariffs...

7th March 2025 · 5 mins read