Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (December 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a...

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify

Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks...

12th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024)

The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y in November, combined with the relative resilience in the peso since the US election means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another...

9th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits

Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important...

6th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico & the trade war, Brazil’s fiscal malaise

Mexico appears to have found the off-ramp after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the country on day one of his presidency. Even so, given Mexico’s...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024)

EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a...

27th November 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

How to think about US tariffs on oil imports

We are sceptical that US tariffs on oil imports will ever see the light of day. But if they did, they would probably result in lower oil production in Canada and Mexico, increased US gasoline prices...

27th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Markets Update

Downbeat prospects for Latin America regardless of Trump

Latin American (LatAm) markets have been generally resilient in the aftermath of the US election, possibly because investors were already pessimistic about the region’s prospects. But we think...

26th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

​​Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line​

President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the...

26th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2024)

Amid the Trump Trade, capital outflows from EM financial markets have persisted over recent weeks. Looking ahead, we expect the US dollar to strengthen further, suggesting that outflows will continue...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (November 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Currencies across Latin American have held up relatively well in the wake of the...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s challenging budget, G20 summit

The sharp reduction in the budget deficit envisaged in Mexico’s draft budget for 2025 will have been welcomed as a sign that the new Sheinbaum administration is taking fiscal discipline seriously. But...

22nd November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of November, to 4.6% y/y, alongside easing core price pressures and the relative resilience in the peso mean that Banxico is likely...

22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read