Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2025) Capital outflows from EMs have picked up again over the past few weeks amid a strengthening of the US dollar and broad increases in bond yields, but also country-specific issues – most notable... 20th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s peso risk, Sheinbaum’s Made in Mexico plan The decision by Argentina's government to slow the rate of depreciation of the peso will help to bring down inflation further. But it will also lead to a further appreciation in the real exchange rate... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Unpacking Mexico’s ties with the US Mexico is arguably the most vulnerable economy to US trade protectionism. This in-depth analysis maps out economic and financial linkages between Mexico and its northern neighbour to provide a clearer... 15th January 2025 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: better placed to face Trump now? Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.2% y/y in December keeps the door open for another 25bp cut at Banxico’s February meeting. But a lot will hinge on moves on the... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec. 2024) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of December, to 4.4% y/y, gives Banxico room to continue to ease monetary policy. But we expect Banxico to continue to cut in 25bp steps, rather than... 23rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Mexico’s central bank unanimously decided to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 10.00%, at today’s meeting and the statement flagged that the easing cycle will continue in the coming months... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 16th December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y in November, combined with the relative resilience in the peso since the US election means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another... 9th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the trade war, Brazil’s fiscal malaise Mexico appears to have found the off-ramp after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the country on day one of his presidency. Even so, given Mexico’s... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
