Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s market meltdown Heavy FX intervention, hawkish noises from central bankers and the approval by congress of spending cuts in the past 24 hours appear to have (just about) pulled Brazil out of the throes of a currency... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Brazil’s currency crisis – Economic and market implications 1734534000 A collapsing currency. A gaping budget deficit. And a president adding fuel to the fire.
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 16th December 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei’s one-year anniversary, Brazil’s jumbo rate hike Argentinian President Javier Milei's first year in office has been much more successful than we (and other analysts) had expected but, absent a weaker exchange rate, it will be difficult to return the... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil succumb to fiscal dominance? The Brazilian central bank’s aggressive interest rate hike yesterday may help ease concerns that fiscal dominance will take hold. But we think that measures to keep government debt servicing costs... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Brazil’s central bank stepped up the pace of tightening with a larger-than-expected 100bp hike, to 12.25%, to the Selic rate and made clear that there will be at least two more 100bp increases, to 14... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2024) The further rise in Brazil’s inflation rate, to 4.9% y/y, in November alongside the weakness in the real and strong economic growth mean that Copom is nailed on to step up the pace of monetary... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2024) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP in Q3 will add to the central bank’s concerns that the economy is running too hot. Alongside rising inflation and the sell-off in local financial markets... 3rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the trade war, Brazil’s fiscal malaise Mexico appears to have found the off-ramp after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the country on day one of his presidency. Even so, given Mexico’s... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Coffee price 🏒; OPEC+ in can-kicking mode Fans of hockey-stick graphs would appreciate recent developments in the coffee market, where prices have surged by 30%+ this month on the back of poor growing weather in Brazil. History suggests that... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: fiscal missteps add to upside risks to Selic rate The fiscal tightening measures announced by Brazil’s finance minister late yesterday failed to live up to expectations and reinforce the idea that political commitment to stabilising the public... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate, to 4.8% y/y, in the first half of November was partly driven by a further increase in underlying core services inflation and means that Copom is likely to... 26th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (November 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Currencies across Latin American have held up relatively well in the wake of the... 25th November 2024 · 1 min read
