Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s debt risks revisited A year ago, we published an in-depth report arguing that the calm prevailing at the time around sovereign debt risks in Latin America wouldn’t last and that public debt dynamics would deteriorate... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Marco Rubio, Latin America & fracturing US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Mark Rubio as secretary of state suggests that – after years of neglect – Latin America will play a more prominent role in US foreign policy in the next... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal risks cloud upbeat outlook for Brazil sovereign bonds We think investors are now overestimating how tight Brazil’s central bank will keep policy over the coming years, so we expect local-currency bond yields there to fall by end-2025. Still, fiscal... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2024) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in October means that the central bank is almost certain to deliver additional interest rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. The risks... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2024) 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s bond sell-off: lessons from 2015 The rise in Brazilian local currency government bond yields this year is now on a scale similar to that seen during its fiscal crisis in 2015. Back then, bond yields only started to fall back when... 4th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued... 1st November 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (October 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace... 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2024) The fall in Mexican core services inflation in the first half of October in principle gives Banxico space to press ahead with another 25bp rate cut next month, but much will hinge on the outcome of... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while... 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to expect from the BRICS+ summit The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What China’s export surge means for Latin America Latin America has played an important role in absorbing China’s export surge, which is generating concern among local policymakers. But the response is likely to vary across the region. Governments in... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in September was mainly due to drought-related effects on food and electricity prices but, even so, it will reinforce the hawkishness of Copom... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep’s fiscal worries, Chile’s deficit, Brazil’s upgrade The decision by Colombia’s central bank to maintain rather than step up the pace of easing at this week’s policy meeting suggests that officials there are increasingly worried about the fiscal... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
