Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for inflation and interest rates in Brazil? Brazil’s inflation outlook appears increasingly worrying, and the headline rate is likely to hit around 6% y/y by year-end, which is a bit higher than most expect. That’s likely to trigger a few more... 20th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2025) The Brazilian central bank made clear in the statement accompanying today’s 100bp interest rate hike (to 14.25%) that it’s far more concerned about high inflation than weakness in the economy. We now... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom’s conundrum, Argentina & the IMF Figures out this week underscored the strength of inflation in Brazil, but we think the weakness in the latest economic activity might just be enough to prompt Copom to make the 100bp hike (to 14.25%)... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s smaller primary deficit won’t solve fiscal woes The vote on Brazil’s 2025 budget (likely next week) will put renewed attention on whether the primary deficit will be kept low enough to comply with the government’s fiscal rules. But the key point is... 13th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Mapping China’s presence in Latin America China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat by the US. This Focus uses interactive charts to map out economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2025) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.1% y/y in February is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. Our base case is that next week’s Copom meeting will see the final... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tariff cuts unlikely to curb high food inflation The announcement by Brazil’s government that it will cut import tariff rates to zero for several food products underscores the government’s concerns about rising inflation and its own falling... 10th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Trump tariffs on Mexico: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Mexico may have received a (belated) reprieve from US tariffs this week, but some goods will still be subject to US duties now and there’s still the lingering uncertainty about what (if any) tariffs... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2024) The sharp slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth, to just 0.2% q/q, in the final quarter of last year confirms that the economy’s recent period of strong growth has come to an abrupt end. We now think the... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Another week of tariff threats, Brazil’s slowdown Mexico's government has pulled out all the stops to stave off the 25% US import tariff that is scheduled to come into effect next Tuesday and another 11th hour deal remains a possibility. But if the... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.0% y/y in the first half of February means Copom will almost certainly press ahead with another 100bp hike in the Selic rate to, 14.25%, at its March... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Some major Latin American economies are among the most exposed to the steel and... 17th February 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Another week, another tariff, Chile’s hawks Some major Latin American economies look among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced by US President Trump... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jan. 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in January, to 4.6% y/y, was mainly due a drop in housing inflation and is unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering another 100bp hike to the... 11th February 2025 · 2 mins read
