Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Sep. 2025) The small increases in inflation in Brazil and Mexico in September are unlikely to have a material impact on the next interest rate meetings in both countries. In Brazil, while an easing cycle is... 9th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: election could derail recent fiscal progress Brazil’s government has brought its primary budget more or less back into balance over the past year, which has helped to improve investor confidence and drive a rally in Brazilian bonds. But... 2nd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Contrary to consensus expectations for growth to stabilise, we expect growth in... 29th September 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Trump bails out Milei, and meets with Lula next week The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina. Unsurprisingly, local markets reacted positively. It might give... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s decertification, Brazil’s slowdown The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations won’t have immediate economic implications, but it does make Colombia more... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2025) The Brazilian central bank’s statement accompanying the decision to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% remained hawkish – but a little less so than at the last meeting in July. And with growth... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Counting the cost of crime in Latin America Growing public concerns about high crime levels and the apparent success of El Salvador in reducing levels of violence are making law and order a key issue in Latin America’s busy electoral calendar... 16th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2025) The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 5.1% y/y in August, is unlikely to change the central bank’s tone at its meeting next week. Interest rates will remain on hold at 15.00%. But with inflation... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rubio in Lat Am, Brazil slows, Buenos Aires votes Marco Rubio's trip to Latin America this week highlighted the US’s growing focus on the region - and particularly efforts to curb drug trafficking. The next thing to watch is Colombia's narcotics... 5th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2025) The slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.4% q/q in Q2 was driven in large part by a softening in domestic demand, which is likely to continue over the coming quarters. And with the inflation outlook... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei on shakier ground, Brazil’s slowdown The decision by the Argentinian government to support the peso by raising required reserve ratios for banks highlights a point we’ve been making for a while – that the Milei administration is firmly... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in many parts of the region, and Brazil in particular, slowed in Q2... 26th August 2025 · 1 min read