Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace... 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pension referendum a risk to Uruguay’s public finances Uruguay's election on Sunday is unlikely to change the path of economic policy but will have big implications for relations with China. Arguably more important than the election itself is the outcome... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What La Niña means for Latin America There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (January 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America: is another debt crisis brewing? Fiscal risks in Latin America have largely been out of the spotlight over the past year, but we think that public debt concerns will build over the coming years. Sovereign defaults seem more likely... 22nd November 2023 · 17 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A temporary rebound in growth The latest activity figures suggest that most Latin American economies held up better than we’d thought in the first few months of 2023. Mexico and Colombia made surprisingly strong starts to the year... 23rd May 2023 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High inflation will limit room for interest rate cuts GDP growth in Latin America will be among the weakest of any EM region this year and next, and is likely to disappoint consensus expectations. Persistently high inflation has prompted us to push back... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External vulnerabilities to ease as growth weakens The latest data suggest that current account deficits in the region’s major economies narrowed towards the end of last year, which is particularly good news for Colombia and Chile. Both were running... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Region slowing Data released over the past month or so suggest that most economies across the region fared well in Q3. GDP growth in Mexico and Colombia came in well above expectations and hard activity data from... 17th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack High inflation fuels strikes and protests High inflation seems to be causing growing unrest in the region, which threatens to be economically disruptive and raise fiscal concerns. Recent protests in Ecuador have hit its oil sector hard, while... 28th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Colombia: no more business as usual The first round of Colombia’s presidential election has set up a close race between left-wing Gustavo Petro and populist Rodolfo Hernández in the second round vote on 19 th June. The vote was a major... 30th May 2022 · 14 mins read
