In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation is more complex. The drop in oil prices, while substantial, is unlikely to lead to a collapse in growth in the biggest oil producing economies in the Gulf. Meanwhile, although the drop in oil prices will help to ease balance of payments pressures in some of the more vulnerable EMs, such as Turkey and South Africa, current account deficits in these countries will remain uncomfortably large.
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