Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing steady, but tariffs cloud the outlook The EM manufacturing PMI ticked up in March on the back of a pick-up in China as well as a continued recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. But tariffs present a major headwind to EMs’ industrial... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to tariffs? Underlying inflation problems in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America and perennial exchange rate worries in Indonesia mean that their central banks are, if anything, likely to react hawkishly... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2025) Outflows from EM capital markets have eased in recent weeks as the US dollar has faltered. But a period of sustained inflows looks unlikely as President Trump presses ahead with tariff policies that... 27th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will the bout of EM protests have? The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. It... 25th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Reciprocal Tariffs: 10 Questions & Answers Because the concept of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ is merely a cover for the White House to impose whatever tariffs it likes, they pose a potentially considerable threat to world trade. This Update provides... 25th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turmoil in a few EMs not a sign of widespread risks The financial market sell-offs in Indonesia, Turkey and Colombia this week are, in part, a reflection of concerns about strained balance sheets. We think that vulnerabilities in some frontier markets... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs” The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic... 12th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: South Africa’s 2025 Budget – Fiscal risks, macro and market consequences 1741797000 After last month’s shock postponement, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is finally expected to present a 2025 national budget on 12th March.
Event EM Drop-In: Is Argentina's economy back? And what just happened in Turkey? 1742396400 Argentina's President Javier Milei has made impressive progress in turning the economy around, but the key question now is whether these achievements can be sustained.
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing pick-up likely to be short lived The small uptick in the EM manufacturing PMI in February appears in part to be a result of the front-running of US tariffs, and is unlikely to be sustained. For now, the surveys continue to point to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2025) On aggregate, EM capital markets have continued to experience outflows in recent weeks and it’s hard to see a significant turnaround given that President Trump’s proposed policies would likely result... 26th February 2025 · 0 mins read
