Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry struggling even before potential Trump tariffs The latest PMIs suggests that the weakness in EM manufacturing at the end of last year has continued into 2025. While the events of today have highlighted the uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the suspension of US aid The Trump administration’s pausing of US aid is a big headwind for many conflict-ridden economies (including Syria and Ukraine) as well as parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, but is unlikely to move the... 30th January 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update The rise of the Indian tourist India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to expect from EM financial markets in 2025 We are pessimistic about the outlook for most emerging market assets in 2025, due to the effects of Donald Trump’s agenda, slowing Chinese activity, subdued commodity prices, and domestic challenges. 22nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2025) Capital outflows from EMs have picked up again over the past few weeks amid a strengthening of the US dollar and broad increases in bond yields, but also country-specific issues – most notable... 20th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A loss of momentum at year-end The small fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in December and the declines in headline PMIs for most countries suggest that EM industry lost some pace at the end of the year. We think... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2025 2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s president declares martial law The declaration of martial law by Korea’s president is an extraordinary step that seems likely to trigger either the suspension of Constitutional democracy in Korea or the president’s own rapid... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A weak end to 2024 for EM manufacturing The pick up in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in November was largely driven by China. Elsewhere, manufacturing activity looks as though it will remain relatively soft into next year. The surveys... 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2024) Amid the Trump Trade, capital outflows from EM financial markets have persisted over recent weeks. Looking ahead, we expect the US dollar to strengthen further, suggesting that outflows will continue... 26th November 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India, Trump tariffs and friendshoring prospects Friendshoring into India has for the most part been limited to high-end manufactured goods, but broader supply chain reconfiguration into the country could take place if the Trump administration... 21st November 2024 · 4 mins read
