Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of the elections is likely to weigh on sentiment towards these economies. While the elections provide an opportunity for a fresh start on structural reform, only in Indonesia do we think there is a strong chance that elections will make a notable difference to the policymaking environment.
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