Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, Taiwan’s tourism woes Having previously expected equity and currency markets to fall sharply across Emerging Asia before the end of the year, we have revised our forecasts and now expect financial markets to remain broadly... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plenum readout, stagflation fears, RCEP Summit The conclusion of the Communist Party Plenum offered few clues on the direction of economic policy. Meanwhile, rising inflation is leading to suggestions that the PBOC won’t be able to loosen as much... 1st November 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, CPI (Oct.) Korean exports fell sharply again in y/y terms last month, but the sector is in better health than the headline data suggest. Meanwhile, Korea exited deflation in October and inflation should continue... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update How big would the benefits be from RCEP? Further progress towards the establishment of what would be the world’s biggest trade deal, the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), is expected over the weekend. Given the... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Recent resilience unlikely to be sustained After a jump in July, world trade volumes rose again in August. But this is unlikely to be the start of a material recovery – indeed, most indicators point to subdued trade growth in the closing... 28th October 2019 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the strong dollar explain the global slowdown? Given the widespread use of the US dollar in international trade and finance, policymakers outside the US have suggested that the dollar’s appreciation is partly to blame for the slowdown in the world... 21st October 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Sep.) Export volumes probably rebounded in the third quarter which should provide some relief for the Bank of Japan. But as external demand is set to weaken further, we think export volumes will fall at a... 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls There are no signs that policy tightening on the property sector is abating, with data published this week showing a further rise in mortgage rates and a continued slowdown in lending to the sector... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoupling, and its impact on growth The rift that has widened between China and the US was caused by China’s emergence as a geopolitical competitor to the US, rather than the personality of Donald Trump. Decoupling will continue whether... 17th October 2019 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing a bumpy recovery The EM export recovery paused in August and September, although we think exports should still strengthen over the coming quarters. This isn’t because of developments in the trade war – the recent... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit will stay in check India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to a seven-month low in September and we think that it will remain small over the coming quarters as low oil prices continue to keep a lid on imports. 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to slow China’s commodity imports held up rather better than imports of other goods in September. However, we think import volumes will tail off in the months ahead amid faltering economic activity. 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
