China Data Response PMIs (August) The latest survey data suggest that exports have continued to struggle but that factory activity was propped up by stronger infrastructure spending. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform is still likely Measures announced by the government yesterday to loosen restrictions on FDI are a welcome step and we think that further reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment are likely over the coming... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Transhipments and weaker RMB are blunting US tariffs China’s share of global exports has increased over the past year, despite US tariffs. Renminbi depreciation and the transhipments of goods to the US via neighbouring countries can take much of the... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade slows further as US-China tensions ratchet up World trade volumes contracted again in the second quarter, and forward-looking indicators suggest that trade growth is likely to stay subdued, just as the US-China trade war is heating up again. 27th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trade deal reduces the risk of US car tariffs The trade deal that the US and Japan have negotiated won’t provide major benefits for Japan’s economy. And while it seems to have reduced the risk that the US imposes any tariffs on Japanese car... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs strengthen the case for easing, weaker RMB With President Trump adding yet more US tariffs to the pipeline, the impact on China’s economy is starting to add up. With the drag on GDP growth set to rise to nearly one percentage point before long... 26th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
China Economics Update China focuses its fire in retaliation The tariffs announced today by China’s government are a departure from previous rounds of retaliation: they focus almost entirely on further raising tariffs on products that have already been targeted... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly US-UK trade deal unlikely to get off the ground We have our doubts that a US-UK trade deal, even a “modular” one, will be easily achievable if there is a no deal Brexit. In any case, the bigger issue will still be the trading relationship between... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor More to the EM export slump than the trade war The US-China trade war, which has now been running for over a year, has exerted an increasingly large drag on EM exports. But other factors including weak global demand have been bigger drivers of the... 20th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we worry about Egypt’s external debt? The sharp rise in Egyptian external debt in the last few years has triggered alarm in some quarters. But it has been accompanied by a large increase in FX reserves, suggesting that risks are currently... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Current account won’t remain in surplus for long A lower cost of funding via foreign liabilities, a higher return on overseas assets and falling capital goods imports should all support Australia’s current account over the next couple of years... 20th August 2019 · 13 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jul.) Today’s external trade figures show that the slump in export volumes is abating. But with imports set to soar ahead of the sales tax hike, net trade will probably remain a drag on GDP growth in Q3. 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Key takeaways from PM Modi’s media interview In a rare media interview published this week, Prime Minister Modi discussed several economic issues. Among the key takeaways, it is clear that the government wants policy to be loosened even further... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria FX ban: Little price effect, big hit CBN credibility The Nigerian president’s call to exclude all food importers from the official FX market will probably be poorly-enforced and have little effect on inflation. But the government’s ever-expanding... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
