US Economics Update Services exports are collateral damage in trade war With attention focused on the impact of tariffs on goods trade, the recent decline in services exports has gone largely unnoticed. But that has already knocked a few tenths off GDP growth and, with... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak export growth to persist New tax breaks announced by the government and the recent weakness of the rupee will do little to support India’s exporters, who will find it hard to capitalise given subdued global demand and... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stabilise, but outlook poor EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. 18th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) The fall in exports in August still leaves open the possibility of a rebound across the third quarter which means that the previous drag that net trade had on growth may have eased. The big picture... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit set to remain contained The goods trade deficit was virtually unchanged in August and, even if export growth stays weak, we think that the shortfall will remain small over the coming quarters. 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update US-China trade war has only minor implications for the UK The impact of the trade war between the US and China on the UK economy has been small, even allowing for the indirect effects on investment and the financial markets. Admittedly, trade tensions will... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Trade war still not a major threat to Australia The trade war has probably lowered Chinese demand for Australian exports by curbing investment in factories and warehouses. But the trade tensions have contributed to the weakening of the Australian... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s commodity imports won’t last long China’s commodity imports ticked up in August, in part due to strong infrastructure spending. But we expect them to weaken in the months ahead as temporary factors fade and construction activity tails... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Aug.) Exports fell last month as global demand softened and US tariffs continued to take their toll. Imports improved thanks to strong infrastructure spending but remain consistent with a further economic... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gold losing its shine, equities have further to fall Gold prices remain close to record highs in rupee terms, but the latest numbers on gold import volumes should assuage any concerns over the impact on the external position. Meanwhile, the Sensex has... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The small narrowing in the trade deficit in July was driven by a rise in exports and leaves net trade on track to be nothing worse than a small drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. But that drag... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) July’s trade data show that non-energy exports are holding up better than the business surveys might suggest, while the weakness in key import components suggests domestic demand growth remains weak. 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & GDP Partials (Q2) The weakness in retail sales isn’t too concerning as most households wouldn’t have received their tax refunds by the end of July. We therefore still expect that GDP growth bottomed out in Q2. However... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Weak trade data for Korea and the weakness of regional manufacturing PMIs in August suggest that economic conditions failed to improve in the middle of this quarter. While we suspect that regional GDP... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
