Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack QE will result in lower bond yields in Australia The decline in bond yields in Australia and New Zealand throughout 2019 has paused in recent months following optimism about a potential trade deal between the US and China and hawkish language from... 21st November 2019 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Oct.) Import volumes fell much less in October than after the 2014 sales tax hike, supporting our view that the tax hike will dent domestic demand less this time around. Export volumes also fell in monthly... 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Trade deal unlikely to provide more upside for equities Optimism about trade has been a factor behind the rally in global equities in the past month. But with a “mini-deal” now largely discounted in the markets, and economic growth unlikely to do better... 19th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update More to coming export rebound than meets the eye Asian export growth should start to pick up over the coming months. However, the recovery will mainly reflect a more favourable base for comparison following the collapse in electronics exports at the... 19th November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit set to remain small The monthly goods trade deficit was virtually unchanged in October and we think that it will remain small over the coming quarters as low oil prices continue to keep a lid on imports. 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade deal won’t avert a further slowdown The US and China still appear to be making progress towards a trade deal. But a partial tariff rollback wouldn’t provide as much of a boost to exports as is often assumed. And any short-run... 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Impact of tax hike on consumption set to remain small Private consumption growth in Q3 was much weaker than ahead of the 1997 and 2014 sales tax hikes. While that’s partly because underlying consumer demand is subdued, the muted spending rush on durables... 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong’s special status matter? If Hong Kong’s special treatment under US law were revoked, the city would lose access to sensitive US technology and face an increased threat of US tariffs. The short-term economic damage would be... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports reflect weaker activity China’s commodity imports were generally weak in October, and we expect volumes to remain subdued in the coming months given our forecast of a further slowdown in China’s economy. 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Proportional” deal, renminbi, bank mergers A “Phase One” US-China trade deal that partially rolls back tariffs now appears within reach and, as a result, we no longer expect further renminbi weakness in the remaining weeks of this year. But... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) The contraction in both exports and imports eased more than expected last month. But even if the “Phase One” US-China trade deal crosses the finish line, it is unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Turning away from freer trade India’s decision this week to opt-out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is not entirely unreasonable given the limited scope of the deal. But by excluding itself from the RCEP... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market begins to loosen The jump in the unemployment rate in September is evidence that the labour market has entered a loosening phase. The Bank of Japan reiterated that the output gap was its key gauge of price pressures... 7th November 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) Net trade probably didn’t bolster GDP growth in the third quarter which adds to the evidence that GDP growth slowed in Q3. And weaker capital goods imports suggest that the slump in business... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit to $52.5bn in September, from $55.0bn, confirms that net trade was broadly neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, although we expect it to become a renewed drag in... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
