China Economics Update US and China no closer to a lasting resolution The US is attempting to pluck low-hanging fruit first, rather than hold out for a more complete trade deal with China. But reaching an agreement on the more contentious structural issues remains an... 14th October 2019 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) The contraction in both exports and imports deepened last month. Import growth should start to recover soon. But with the mini US-China trade deal unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds facing... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lasting trade deal elusive, holidaymakers stay home The US and China may be on the brink of a mini deal that postpones the US tariffs that are due to come into force next Tuesday. But with the key structural issues no closer to being resolved, we... 11th October 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Government to limit adverse effect from no deal tariffs The government’s latest no deal tariff plans released yesterday provide us with some reassurance that although there will be some hit to the economy from higher tariffs it won’t be as big as most... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) China’s FX reserves declined unexpectedly last month but officials claim this was due to valuation effects and muted outflow pressures suggest that the PBOC will have felt little urgency to run down... 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) The trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in August thanks to a strong rise in export prices but, with export volumes falling and import volumes rising, it appears net trade was a drag on third-quarter... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The 136,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September illustrates that while growth in employment (and broader activity) has slowed, it is not collapsing. Otherwise, the employment report was... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Financial decoupling, Hong Kong retail collapse The restrictions on US capital flows into China reportedly being considered by the Trump administration would, at the margin, constrain China’s ability to fund overseas investment. But given China’s... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The narrowing in the trade surplus in August was mostly driven by a decline in export prices so we doubt that net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in Q3. Even so, we estimate that the contribution... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Downbeat trade data for Korea and weak regional manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP data for last quarter are likely to be subdued again in most places, but there were some signs of improvement at the... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low India’s current account deficit narrowed a touch in the four quarters to Q2 and looks unlikely to balloon any time soon as imports of key commodities remain in check. Meanwhile, FDI inflows edged up... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: protectionism key risk to growth outlook Data released over the weekend suggest that Vietnam grew strongly in the third quarter of the year, and we think it will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region. The possibility that... 30th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still unlikely to grow at all this year While world trade volumes rebounded in July, they only recovered ground lost the previous month. The big picture is that world trade is set to remain weak in the coming months as the global industrial... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kuroda targets short end, “phenomenal” trade deal The shift in the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases from long towards short maturities has helped to lift very long-term yields from their recent lows. And if US Treasury yields rise further next year... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
