India Economics Update Trade deficit will remain small The merchandise trade deficit narrowed in July and we think that it will remain small over the coming months given India’s limited exposure to trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The Great Asian Moderation Emerging Asia has not only been the fastest growing region since the global financial crisis, it has also been the most stable. Regional growth has also been less volatile compared with the period... 14th August 2019 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk to the euro-zone from the trade war is rising The risk to the euro-zone from the US-China trade war is rising. And it seems increasingly likely that the US will raise tariffs on auto imports from the EU, which could tip Germany into recession... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly The pros and cons of a weaker renminbi The recent weakening of the renminbi has revived a debate over the economic impact of currency depreciation. There will be both winners and losers domestically. But given that China’s government... 8th August 2019 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Shipments in and out of China held up better than expected last month, but a sustained turnaround still looks unlikely in the near-term. 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, trade war escalates, rate cuts While we had been expecting an escalation in US-China trade tensions, China’s decision to allow the renminbi to weaken through 7.0/US$ in response to Trump’s latest tariffs means events are moving... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jul.) The latest FX reserves figures are consistent with the People’s Bank (PBOC) having remained on the sidelines of the FX market last month. But the relative calm of July will give way to a more eventful... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: neighbours unlikely to pull the plug Financial support from the Gulf means that Bahrain and Oman should avoid damaging devaluations and acute sovereign debt problems. Even if their governments fail to implement the fiscal tightening that... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The trade war is only likely to intensify from here While the recent escalation of the US-China trade war may have occurred a bit earlier than even we had anticipated, it fits with our below-consensus forecast for global growth this year and next. What... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Currency manipulator label points to further escalation The Trump administration’s move to label China a currency manipulator may have few practical implications, but it underscores the speed at which tensions are now escalating. The key risk is that the... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spiralling trade war and what it means for EMs The latest phase of the trade war is likely to have a relatively limited direct impact on EM exports. But with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s next steps in the trade war China is left with few good options to hit back at the US in ways that wouldn’t be self-defeating. Rather than direct retaliation, officials are therefore likely to focus their efforts on broader... 6th August 2019 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update FX manipulator label to further strain bilateral relations The US decision to label China a currency manipulator is on shaky economic grounds since, if anything, the renminbi would be even weaker than it is now without policy support. But the move is another... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun.) We estimate that net trade boosted GDP growth in Q2, providing a glimmer of hope amidst the bleak domestic outlook. 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s next steps in the trade war China is left with few good options to hit back at the US in ways that wouldn’t be self-defeating. Rather than direct retaliation, officials are therefore likely to focus their efforts on broader... 5th August 2019 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC weaponizes the renminbi The PBOC has allowed the renminbi to fall to its weakest level in a decade in response to trade tensions. It appears to have decided that, given the increasingly dim prospects of a trade deal with the... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
