China Economics Focus The Phase One deal and its impact on China The trade deal between the US and China marks an end to the first phase of the trade war. China’s pledges on imports from the US are unlikely to be met but that may not matter to the deal’s long-term... 15th January 2020 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Phase One deal reduces downside risks The Phase One trade agreement signed today removes the downside risk of a never-ending escalation of tariffs imposed by the US and China on each other’s imports, but the modest scale of the roll-back... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Headline trade growth surged in December. But this is more a reflection of base and price effects than of current strength. And while the outlook for exports is improving, domestic demand will remain... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Nov.) The sharp decline in GDP in December is partly due to some activity being brought forward before the 31st October Brexit deadline. Nonetheless it leaves the economy on course to stagnate or contract... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Phase one trade deal still light on details This week brought another round of, on the whole, positive economic data, while the signing of the phase one US-China trade deal next week should further bolster confidence. With tensions in the... 10th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Some good news for Q4 but 2020 still looks soft Trade and retail sales data for November both provided some reason to be optimistic about GDP growth in Q4. But looking past the positive headlines, we still think the outlook for domestic demand in... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rise in the trade balance in November is consistent with the contribution from net exports to GDP growth rising sharply in the fourth quarter but the weakness in imports suggests domestic... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November’s sharp falls in export and import volumes point to another weak month for activity and suggest that GDP stagnated in the fourth quarter. But given that the trade weakness in November was... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit to $43.1bn in November, from $46.9bn, was driven by another fall in imports that will be reversed in the coming months. Nevertheless, net trade appears to have... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Dec.) The official foreign exchange reserves figures suggest that the PBOC continued to refrain from direct FX intervention last month on the back of easing trade tensions. With outflows moderating – and... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to cut again, Sri Lanka on slow road to recovery Minutes from the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) November rate meeting reveal that while only one of the seven members of its Monetary Policy Board voted for a cut, other members also struck a dovish tone. We... 20th December 2019 · 9 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov.) Import volumes probably fell more sharply than export volumes in Q4 so net trade should have provided a boost to GDP growth. That’s hardly a cause for optimism though as the weakness in imports... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Phase One deal doesn’t mark the end of the trade war The details of the reported “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China are sketchy and we are not convinced that it will hold. While the deal removes a downside risk, it does not justify a change... 16th December 2019 · 5 mins read
