US Economics Update Phase One agreement not a big deal for the economy The “Phase One” trade deal apparently agreed with China is a small positive for the outlook to the extent that it removes the threat of further tariffs. But we doubt the rollback of existing tariffs... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Little threat from wider trade deficit India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened in November and we expect this to continue into 2020. Nevertheless, with imports of key commodities set to remain low, we think that the external shortfall... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China trade deal, infrastructure spending A “Phase One” trade deal has reportedly been reached, including a larger-than-expected rollback of US tariffs. But the resulting boost to China’s economy will be modest and the deal still looks at... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in GDP in October is unlikely to influence many people’s vote in Thursday’s election, but it could prompt some more MPC members to vote for lower interest rates in the coming months. 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update WTO debilitation adds to signs of end of globalisation The WTO looks set to lose its power to rule on trade disputes this week. This will not immediately transform the economic or policy outlook since the body had been effectively side-lined already. But... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s record oil imports not the whole story China’s commodity imports were relatively strong in November, perhaps reflecting some front-loading of regional spending on infrastructure. But our view that growth in China’s property sector is set... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Nov.) Exports continued to languish last month and the pick-up in headline import growth reflects base effects rather than stronger domestic demand. Meanwhile, FX reserves data released over the weekend... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) Following the modest rise in October, exports almost certainly slumped in November due to the disruption to the Keystone pipeline as well as the CN Rail strike. That will cause a further slowdown in... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, to a 16-month low in October, was distorted by a GM-strike related fall in auto imports and a big drop back in consumer goods imports, as the stockpiling... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in retail sales in October suggests that consumption growth remained sluggish in the fourth quarter. And while net exports should continue to support GDP growth, the weakness in... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, CPI (Nov.) The uptick in Korean export growth in November was much weaker than expectations and suggests that external demand remains in the doldrums. Headline inflation was also weaker than expected last month. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly VAT cut in Sri Lanka, Japan-Korea trade spat The decision by Sri Lanka’s new president to cut the rate of VAT from 15% to 8% will provide a significant boost to the economy, but will put increased strain on the country’s fragile public finances... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy spluttering, Korea tensions thaw The plunge in retail sales and factory output following the 1 st October sales tax hike points towards a sharp contraction in GDP this quarter. However, we think there are still reasons to believe the... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade may soon stabilise but no rebound in sight September’s fall in world trade volumes was a blow to hopes that the global economy may have reached a turning point. There are some signs of stabilisation in leading indicators of trade, and base... 26th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
