Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Feb.) Korean trade data serve as a good bellwether for the rest of the region and figures for the first 10 days of February suggest that factory closures in China are disrupting regional industry. 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in real retail sales provides some hope that consumption growth may have turned a corner. Even so, we still think GDP growth remained subdued at the end of 2019. 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The jump in exports should drive a larger monthly rise in GDP in December. That will provide a strong hand-over to the first quarter and supports our forecast for growth to rebound to near 2%... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Korea Trade (Jan.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) and Korean trade data were mostly unchanged in January, but neither give a good indication of how the coronavirus has hit the regional economy most recently. With... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly FDI inflows likely to rise further The rise in FDI inflows to India in 2019 reported by UNCTAD this week is a welcome development and we expect inflows to increase further over the coming years. A key risk is the Modi government’s... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) We estimate that net trade boosted GDP growth by around 0.4 percentage points in Q4. However, much of that reflects soft domestic demand following October’s sales tax hike. We expect the external... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade deal adds to hopes of a more upbeat 2020 The main economic impact of the signing of the Phase One trade deal this week was to further reduce the downside risks to the outlook. But the details of the deal also suggest some upside risk to... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook for euro-zone exports still subdued The Phase One trade deal between the US and China is not a game changer for Europe. We still expect euro-zone export growth to remain fairly slow this year as the global economy expands less quickly... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Phase One deal: the good and bad for EMs The latest data suggest that y/y EM export growth turned positive in December, having contracted for much of 2019. We think this will mark the start of a run of better EM export figures. Meanwhile... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly US-China trade deal headwind to export growth The trade deal between the US and China may improve confidence in Australia helping end the drag from private investment. But prospects of a deal probably also contributed to the appreciation in the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update US-China trade deal, and its impact on the rest of Asia The signing of the Phase One trade deal is unlikely to spell the end of the trade war, and the disruption it has caused to Asian supply chains looks set to continue. 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
India Economics Update Risks from wider trade deficit are limited The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in December is likely to reverse over the coming months. But we think that a low level of commodity imports will help to prevent the external shortfall... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
