US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (June 2024) The decline in the ISM services index to 48.8 in June, from 53.8, takes it to its lowest since the lockdowns in 2020. Alongside a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, these surveys suggest that GDP... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth: out of sync One of the takeaways from our latest Emerging Markets Outlook is that the EM business cycle is unusually unsynchronised. We expect some convergence as the effects of the enormous macro shocks of... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2024) The upside surprise in the May retail sales numbers primarily reflected consumers taking advantage of end-of-financial year sales events. As a result, we doubt the data will allay the RBA’s concerns... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recovery in residential investment to lose steam The rebound in residential investment over the past year will go into reverse in Q2, as housing starts and home sales slump again. We expect this weakness to persist thanks to a coming slump in new... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs show recovery losing pace The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry lost some momentum at the end of Q2. While activity in emerging markets continued to grow strongly, industry was still... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asia continuing to lead EM manufacturing PMIs higher The EM manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high in June, driven by improvements in the surveys in much of Asia which have continued to benefit from strong export demand. Manufacturing recoveries... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (June 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was little changed in June, leaving it consistent at face value with a small fall in GDP. While the ISM has not been a good leading indicator of GDP growth in recent years... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not... 1st July 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained weak in June but improving electricity supply conditions and reduced political uncertainty should support a modest pick-up in activity. That said, the economy... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korean trade, Indonesia inflation The PMIs from Emerging Asia picked up strongly last month, but we doubt this will last given the subdued outlook for global demand. Meanwhile, the decline in inflation in Indonesia last month supports... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jun. 2024) The PMIs for June suggest that China’s economy lost some momentum last month. But the manufacturing surveys may have been weighed down by negative sentiment effects due to recent tariff announcements... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most... 28th June 2024 · 0 mins read
