Europe Economics Weekly

Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis

The European Commission this week announced its intention to put five euro-zone countries, including France and Italy, into Excessive Deficit Procedures. This will concentrate investors’ minds on the...

21st June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear

The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2024)

The sharp drop in the euro-zone Composite PMI in June suggests a solid recovery in the euro-zone economy is not a done deal, with activity having apparently stagnated this month. Meanwhile, aggregate...

21st June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun. 2024)

June’s composite PMI suggests the economic recovery lost a bit of momentum towards the end of the second quarter. And after two stronger-than-expected inflation prints for April and May, the renewed...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Slowdown in activity not due to supply shortages

Some commentators have been arguing that the recent weakness in economic activity reflects a shortfall of supply rather than weaker demand. However, business surveys suggest that supply constraints...

21st June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Weak growth to make fiscal challenge harder

The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to...

20th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What La Niña means for Latin America

There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Policy easing to begin soon

We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

On the mend

The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Lebanon on the brink, Hajj underway, Morocco rates

Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have ratcheted up in recent weeks and now threatens to draw Lebanon directly into the war. The economy is already in the midst of one of the worst crises on...

20th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024)

After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

India Economic Outlook

Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins

Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s...

20th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand GDP (Q1 2024)

The modest rebound in GDP last quarter doesn’t change the bigger picture that the New Zealand economy is worse for wear. In fact, timely survey data suggest that things may well get worse before they...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

S. Africa’s economy slowly turning the corner

South Africa’s new government of national unity (GNU) will welcome signs that the economy showed signs of perking up at the start of Q2. We think this burst of momentum has further to run, although...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (May 2024)

Trade volumes were little changed in May which suggests that net trade provided a small drag on GDP growth this quarter.

19th June 2024 · 1 min read